Vanguard aboga por una estrategia de portafolio 40/60 sobre una asignación clásica de 60/40

• Vanguard now recommends a 40% stock and 60% bond allocation for medium-term investors, reversing its traditional 60/40 advice.
• This shift reflects concerns about overvalued U.S. equities, particularly tech stocks driven by AI hype, and expectations of higher bond returns.
• Vanguard projects international stocks will outperform U.S. equities over the next decade, while bonds offer similar returns with lower risk.
• The 40/60 portfolio aims to deliver equivalent returns to 60/40 with reduced volatility, acting as a hedge against AI disappointment.

Vanguard Group, , is making a strategic pivot in its portfolio recommendations. The firm now advocates a 40% equity and 60% fixed income split for investors with a 3-5 year horizon. This reversal from the classic 60/40 model comes amid mounting fears of an AI bubble and overconcentration in U.S. tech stocks. The move signals a broader industry reassessment of risk in an era of elevated valuations and uncertain growth.

Why Is Vanguard Reversing Its 60/40 Investment Recommendation?

Vanguard's allocation flip stems from two primary concerns: stretched U.S. equity valuations and the potential for an AI-driven market correction. The firm's global head of portfolio construction, Roger Aliaga-Diaz, , levels reminiscent of the dot-com bubble peak. This overvaluation is concentrated in the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, which now dominate index performance. With bonds offering projected returns .

Persistent inflation and rising interest rates have also undermined the traditional 60/40 approach by eroding its diversification benefits according to research. When both stocks and bonds fell simultaneously during 2022 rate hikes, it revealed structural vulnerabilities in the old model. Vanguard's research indicates this decade, outperforming U.S. stocks. That international growth potential further justifies reducing exposure to overvalued domestic markets.

How Does Vanguard's New Strategy Reduce Portfolio Risk?

The 40/60 allocation significantly cuts portfolio volatility while maintaining equivalent projected returns to the traditional model. By shifting 20% from equities to fixed income, investors reduce exposure to overvalued U.S. stocks that face heightened correction risks if AI innovations disappoint. , which could trigger a sharp market reversal. Bonds now act as both a ballast and return engine, with high-quality debt offering yields not seen in over a decade.

Geographic diversification further de-risks the strategy through substantial international stock exposure. This allocation helps mitigate single-country risk and taps into relatively cheaper valuations abroad. Crucially, the approach avoids drastic portfolio overhauls by emphasizing gradual diversification into small-caps and value stocks instead of panic selling. For retirees and those nearing retirement, this balanced approach prioritizes capital preservation during distribution phases.

What Should Investors Consider Before Adopting Vanguard's New Allocation?

While Vanguard's 40/60 model suits medium-term investors, long-term retirement savers may still benefit from higher equity exposure. Target-date funds automatically adjust allocations over time, making them a hands-off alternative for those decades from retirement. Financial planners caution against radical portfolio shifts, instead advocating gradual rebalancing toward undervalued assets. Time horizon remains critical since bonds' current yield advantage could diminish if rates fall sharply.

The 40/60 approach also faces challenges in prolonged inflationary environments. 's competing 50/30/20 model addresses this by incorporating 20% alternatives like real estate and private credit for inflation hedging. Still, these assets often require higher minimum investments and carry liquidity constraints for retail investors. Ultimately, portfolio construction should align with individual risk tolerance, time horizon, and access to diverse asset classes.