VANAUSDC Market Overview

• Vana/USDC drops 9.8% over 24 hours amid declining momentum and bearish continuation patterns.
• Price tests critical support near $3.90 and $3.89, with RSI indicating oversold conditions.
• Volatility spikes in early hours, followed by quiet consolidation toward the close.
• MACD remains bearish with negative divergence, suggesting possible short-term rebound risk.
• Bollinger Bands contract toward the close, signaling potential volatility expansion ahead.

Vana/USDC opened at $4.076 on October 6 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.905 on October 7 at the same time, with a 24-hour high of $4.153 and a low of $3.888. Total volume was 8,726.01 units, and notional turnover reached $33,980.27. The pair formed multiple bearish patterns, including engulfing and hanging man candles, as price declined through key Fibonacci levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24 hours showed clear bearish control, with a key resistance zone between $4.055 and $4.081 failing early in the session. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $4.081–$4.056 around 01:45–02:00 ET, followed by a hanging man at $4.056–$4.047 at 06:15 ET, confirming weak bullish conviction. Price then consolidated below $4.00 and broke key Fibonacci support at 38.2% ($3.993) and 61.8% ($3.928), indicating potential bearish continuation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both declined with the trend, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price closed below both, suggesting the downtrend remains intact. On the daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200-day MAs are likely positioned to the long side, given the recent sharp correction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained negative throughout the session with a bearish crossover, while the RSI declined to the 30–35 range, indicating oversold territory. A potential short-term bounce could occur, but without a strong bullish MACD divergence, it's unlikely to hold.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened early in the session during the sharp drop from $4.153 to $3.993, then contracted toward the close, suggesting a potential reversal or continued bearish bias depending on next-day volume. Price closed near the lower band at $3.905, with volatility appearing to bottom out.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early morning hours as price dropped below $4.05, peaking at $4.035–$4.031 and again at $3.992–$3.973. However, volume declined significantly in the afternoon, with price moving lower on reduced liquidity. Notional turnover dropped from a peak of $1,714.37 (at $4.057) to near-zero by 12:00 ET, suggesting a lack of institutional follow-through on the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% and 61.8% levels at $3.993 and $3.928 were key during the session. Price found support at $3.928 (61.8%) before breaking it, signaling deeper bearish potential toward the 78.6% level (~$3.86) and possibly $3.80. Short-term traders may look for a bounce off the 38.2% level as a potential countertrend entry.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering short positions on a confirmed break of the 61.8% Fibonacci level with a stop above the most recent 15-minute high and a target at the 78.6% level. This aligns with the observed bearish structure and volume behavior. A long entry could be considered on a retest of the 38.2% level with a stop below the 23.6% level, provided the MACD shows bullish divergence. This approach leverages the defined trend and volatility indicators for high-probability setups.