Vanar Chain/USDC Market Overview: A Bearish Consolidation with Potential Breakdown

• Vanar Chain/USDC traded in a tight range with a bearish close, closing below the open.
• Notable volume surges occurred during the overnight and early morning hours, signaling active trading.
• A bearish divergence appears in the RSI and price, hinting at potential exhaustion in the uptrend.
• A large-volume bearish engulfing pattern formed at the peak of the session.
• Volatility expanded during the early morning hours, with a low of $0.0146, suggesting a potential support level.

VANRYUSDC opened at $0.0149 on 2025-10-29 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0146 by 2025-10-30 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.0156 and a low of $0.0138. The 24-hour volume reached 20,583,782.0, and the notional turnover amounted to $306,799.2. The price action displayed a bearish consolidation pattern, with a clear breakdown below key resistance and a potential bearish reversal in place.

Structure analysis of the 15-minute OHLC data revealed a bearish engulfing pattern during the early morning hours, particularly at 04:30 and 04:45 ET, where price surged to $0.015 and then collapsed to $0.0146. This pattern is often a sign of trend exhaustion, especially when it coincides with high volume. Notable support levels formed at $0.0146, $0.0143, and $0.0140, while resistance appeared at $0.0156, $0.0153, and $0.0150. A bearish continuation pattern appears in place, with price showing reluctance to reclaim the $0.015 level.

The 15-minute 20/50 EMA crossover turned bearish during the morning hours, aligning with the breakdown from the $0.0156 high. The MACD line dipped into negative territory with a bearish crossover, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The RSI dropped below 50, with a bearish divergence appearing during the afternoon hours as prices dipped to $0.0146 while the indicator continued to fall. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction in the early hours before expanding during the breakdown, indicating increased volatility. Price closed the 24-hour period near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting oversold conditions.

The volume profile showed a sharp increase during the overnight and early morning hours, particularly between 02:30 and 04:45 ET, confirming the bearish breakdown. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, reinforcing the strength of the move. However, in the afternoon and evening hours, both volume and turnover declined, indicating a possible pause in selling pressure. No significant price-volume divergence was observed during the 24-hour window, suggesting that the bearish momentum is intact.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be designed around the bearish engulfing patterns observed on the 15-minute chart. For example, if a bearish engulfing pattern appears, one could consider selling at the close of that candle and holding until the close of the next day or a stop-loss is triggered. Given the volume confirmation during such patterns, this approach could offer a high-probability short-term bearish setup. Including a stop-loss at the high of the engulfing candle and a take-profit target at the next support level (e.g., $0.0143 or $0.0140) would add risk control. A longer-holding period may be considered if the price action remains bearish into the next session, but this would require further validation through historical backtesting.