Vanar Chain/USDC Market Overview

• Price action saw a modest range-bound consolidation in the 24-hour period with a high of 0.0147 and a low of 0.0116.
• A strong volume spike at 15:45 ET suggests a pivotal move downward that may test key supports.
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum, with oversold conditions emerging in the final hours of the window.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the late ET session, with price breaking below 0.013.
• Bollinger Bands widened as the market swung through a volatile 15-minute window, signaling potential for a continuation or reversal.

Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) opened at 0.0143 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.0147 before falling to a low of 0.0116. The 24-hour session closed at 0.0123 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the period was 10,143,840.5 and turnover amounted to USD 124,727.14 (assuming USDC = USD). The price action suggests a bearish bias amid rising volatility and key support levels coming into play.

Structure & Formations

Over the past 24 hours, the price of Vanar Chain/USDC formed several notable patterns. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed at the 23:45 candle on the 15-minute chart, confirming a sharp move lower. A shooting star at 00:00 ET and a doji at 03:00 ET indicated indecision and potential reversal points. Key support levels have been identified at 0.0130, 0.0125, and 0.0115, while resistances appear at 0.0140, 0.0145, and 0.0150. The price has been fluctuating between these levels with increasing frequency as it approaches the lower end of the range.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have crossed below, confirming a bearish crossover. The 200-period daily SMA also indicates a long-term downward trend. Bollinger Bands have significantly widened during the afternoon and early evening hours, reflecting heightened volatility. Price has spent much of the time in the lower third of the bands, indicating oversold conditions and a potential bounce or continuation lower.

MACD and RSI

The MACD has remained in negative territory throughout the 24-hour period, with the signal line cutting below the histogram to confirm bearish momentum. The RSI dropped below 30 for the last 4 hours, entering oversold territory, which could hint at a short-term reversal or consolidation phase. However, given the volume and the sharp move lower at 15:45, a reversal may be delayed or absent unless there is a significant buying interest.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 15:45–16:00 ET window, with an impressive 2.73 million volume at 15:45, driving the price from 0.0129 to 0.0122. This indicates strong selling pressure. Notional turnover followed the same trajectory, with the most intense trading activity in the late ET hours. A divergence between price and volume could indicate either exhaustion or a strong bearish impulse, but the alignment during the 15:45 window suggests conviction in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent high of 0.0147 and the low at 0.0116, key retracement levels for the 24-hour swing are 38.2% at 0.0134, 50.0% at 0.0131, and 61.8% at 0.0128. The price has been hovering near the 50.0% level for much of the last 6 hours, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation phase. Daily Fibonacci levels also highlight 0.0130 as a critical psychological support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be applied by identifying bearish reversal patterns such as the Evening Star, which appeared at 23:45 ET, to determine whether entering a short position after confirmation would yield consistent returns. If we define entry at the next market open and exit at the close of that day, we could test the viability of short-term bearish bias in Vanar Chain/USDC. Implementing a stop-loss above 0.0140 and a take-profit at 0.0115 could help manage risk. This approach aligns with the observed RSI oversold levels and the volume-weighted breakdown, offering a structured way to assess the strategy's effectiveness from 2022-01-01 through 2025-11-03.