Vanar Chain/USDC Market Overview: 24-Hour Action from 2025-10-06 12:00 ET to 2025-10-07 12:00 ET

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• Price dropped from 0.0296 to 0.0268 over the 24-hour period, closing near session low.
• A large bearish candle (17:00–17:15 ET) opened the bearish trend with high volume and a 0.0011 range.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, as seen in the 0.0003 Bollinger Band widening from 0.0290 to 0.0295.
• RSI entered oversold territory by late afternoon, hinting at potential short-term bounce.
• Volume spiked over 4M at 06:15 ET, coinciding with a sharp price drop to 0.0282.

Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) opened at 0.029 and traded between 0.0296 (high) and 0.0266 (low) during the 24-hour period, closing at 0.0268. Total volume was 20.89 million USDC, with notional turnover at $632,794. The pair showed a bearish bias, with bearish engulfing patterns appearing around 18:45 and 06:15 ET, both on high-volume candles.

Key resistance levels emerged at 0.0286–0.0289, where the price stalled multiple times, while support settled near 0.0285–0.0284, failing to hold in the latter half of the session. A doji formed around 00:00 ET, signaling indecision. The 15-minute 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA at 06:00 ET, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

RSI dipped into oversold territory in the final hour, reaching 29, suggesting possible near-term exhaustion of the bearish move. MACD remained bearish with a negative histogram, though the narrowing spread hinted at weakening downward momentum. Volatility, as indicated by the Bollinger Bands, widened significantly mid-session, with the price briefly spilling below the lower band at 06:15 ET.

Looking ahead, traders may watch for a potential rebound from the 0.0268–0.0270 area, with a 0.0275 target based on Fibonacci retracements from the 0.0296 high. A breakout above 0.0285 would likely test 0.0289–0.0290. However, the risk remains that the 0.0266 low could be tested if bearish momentum continues. Investors should remain cautious and monitor volume for signs of conviction or fading interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy would be to go long on a bullish engulfing pattern or a doji at key support levels, with a stop-loss 1.5% below entry and a 2.5% target. Given the recent bearish momentum, such a strategy would require confirmation through a reversal in RSI or a bullish MACD crossover. The 15-minute timeframe would be optimal for testing this strategy over the next week, with 0.0275–0.0280 as ideal entry ranges.