Vanar Chain/USDC Market Overview (2025-10-10)

• Price action formed a bullish breakout above 0.0263, followed by consolidation.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions at peak, hinting at potential pullback.
• Volume surged during the early morning spike but dropped during consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the breakout, signaling increased volatility.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged mid-day, suggesting short-term uncertainty.

The Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) pair opened at 0.0254 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.0277, and closed at 0.0254 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 19,024,307.0 and total turnover was approximately 478,579.0 (USDC). Price formed a sharp bullish move to 0.0277 during the midday session but failed to maintain gains, retreating into a consolidation phase.

Key support levels formed at 0.0254 and 0.0257, with 0.0251 acting as a deeper level of interest. Resistance levels emerged at 0.0261 and 0.0267, where price showed signs of rejection. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared during the afternoon session, indicating bearish sentiment. A doji near 0.0263 also hinted at indecision among traders.

The 15-minute RSI reached overbought territory (75+) during the midday rally, suggesting potential for a pullback. MACD showed a bullish crossover early in the session but diverged later as price declined. Bollinger Bands expanded during the rally, with price breaking out above the upper band before returning within. Volatility appears to be normalizing into the late hours, with volume tapering off as price consolidates.

Fibonacci levels drawn from the recent high (0.0277) to the low (0.0251) show 61.8% at 0.0262 and 38.2% at 0.0266—levels where price appears to have found resistance and support. If the current consolidation breaks to the downside, the next target could be 0.0254–0.0251, while a retest of 0.0267 may trigger further bullish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

The suggested backtesting strategy involves a mean-reversion approach triggered by overbought RSI levels and bearish engulfing patterns. Entering a short position when RSI > 70 and a bearish engulfing candle forms above a key resistance level—confirmed by a pullback—could be profitable. Stop-loss is placed below the nearest support, with a target at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This aligns with today’s price behavior, particularly the mid-day rejection at 0.0267 and the bearish engulfing formation.