Vanar Chain/USDC Market Overview for 2025-10-03

• Price opened at $0.0264 and surged to a high of $0.0289 before consolidating near $0.0282.
• Strong volume-driven rally occurred in late ET trading, with volume spiking to 480,342 units.
• RSI and MACD signaled growing momentum mid-session, while Bollinger Bands showed increased volatility.
• Price found temporary resistance at $0.0285 and support at $0.0279, with a bullish bias emerging after 19:15 ET.
• Evening sell-off saw a 1.1% pullback, but buying pressure reasserted above $0.0280 before the 24-hour close.

Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) opened at $0.0264 at 12:00 ET−1 and reached a high of $0.0289 before closing at $0.0282 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour session saw a total volume of 16,792,886 units and a notional turnover of $472,680. Price action was characterized by a strong late-day rally followed by a consolidation phase and a modest pullback overnight.

Structure & Formations

Price moved within a bullish ascending pattern during the day, with key resistance forming around $0.0285 and support seen at $0.0279. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged after 19:15 ET, confirming a shift in momentum. A doji at $0.0284 late in the session suggested indecision but did not trigger a reversal. These formations imply that buyers continue to control the short-term trajectory, but caution is warranted as price approaches $0.0285.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were bullish, with price consistently above both. The 50-period daily MA showed a modest upward bias, while the 200-period MA remained relatively flat. This suggests intermediate-term bullish momentum, with support likely to remain firm above $0.0280 in the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory mid-day and remained bullish throughout the session, with the signal line rising steadily. RSI reached an overbought level of 62 at $0.0285, indicating possible short-term exhaustion. However, a pullback to $0.0280 did not trigger RSI into oversold territory, suggesting that momentum remains intact. This combination points to a possible consolidation phase before the next move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 19:15 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening and price reaching near the upper band at $0.0289. The mid-band was trading at $0.0281, indicating that the 24-hour close was slightly above the mean. A contraction in band width is expected in the early hours of the next session, potentially signaling a setup for a new directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key resistance levels, especially around $0.0285 and $0.0289, confirming bullish conviction. The highest volume candle occurred at 19:15 ET with 480,342 units traded, coinciding with the breakout. Notional turnover was largely in line with price movement, with no significant divergence observed. This reinforces the idea that buying pressure is genuine and not driven by wash trading or market manipulation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the day's $0.0264 to $0.0289 swing, the 61.8% level sits at $0.0281, closely matching the 24-hour close. The 38.2% retrace level is at $0.0276, which saw moderate support. These levels suggest that $0.0281 could hold as a key psychological level, with $0.0285–$0.0286 potentially acting as the next area of interest for further movement.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on entries at 50-period MA crossovers above the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart, particularly in conjunction with bullish candlestick patterns and RSI levels above 50. Stops could be placed below key Fibonacci retracement levels or below the nearest Bollinger Band, with targets set at the next 38.2%–61.8% retracement zones. This strategy would be most effective during high-volume hours and should be tested over multiple price cycles to validate its robustness across varying volatility conditions.