Vana/USDC Market Overview

• VANAUSDC dropped from 2.63 to 2.59 during the 24-hour period, forming bearish patterns and key support.
• Price action showed strong bearish momentum in the 18–20 October window, with a sharp retracement into oversold territory.
• Volatility was high in the early hours, with a large 15-minute candle showing a 3.2% drop in price.
• Volume spiked during key down moves, confirming bearish sentiment, but waned near support areas.
• RSI approached oversold levels but failed to trigger a strong rebound, suggesting potential for further consolidation or follow-through selling.

Vana/USDC (VANAUSDC) opened at 2.631 on 2025-10-23 at 16:00 ET and closed at 2.596 on 2025-10-24 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 2.662 and a low of 2.570. Total volume over 24 hours was 3,028.34, and total turnover was $7,888.66. The pair has shown bearish pressure and key support levels forming below 2.595.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern during the 19:00–19:15 ET period, followed by a sharp drop toward 2.570, which acted as a temporary support. A small doji formed at 2.570–2.579, indicating indecision. A key support level appears to have emerged around 2.570–2.580, with the price rebounding off this level twice. Resistance levels are visible at 2.605, 2.620, and 2.640, coinciding with previous swing highs and failed breakouts.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below key price levels, confirming the bearish bias. The 50-period MA sits at approximately 2.610, while the 100-period MA is at 2.625. The 200-period MA remains at 2.630, suggesting a potential for continued bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line around 2025-10-24 at 01:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped to 28–30 in the morning hours, nearing oversold territory. However, no strong reversal followed, and price remained below the 2.605 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on bearish engulfing patterns occurring near strong resistance levels (e.g., 2.610–2.625), with stop-loss placed just above the engulfing pattern’s high and a target near key support. Given the current positioning and volume confirmation during the pattern, this could serve as a short-term sell signal with a defined risk-reward ratio.

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction during the late hours of 2025-10-23, with price breaking below the lower band at 2.570, signaling high volatility. The band width was around 0.017, indicating a potential for a rebound or continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key down moves, particularly around 2025-10-23 19:00–20:00 ET, where large sell volumes (over 100 units) moved the price down by 2.5%. However, volume dropped significantly after reaching support at 2.570, suggesting limited follow-through selling. Notional turnover confirmed the bearish bias during the 19:00–20:00 ET window, but diverged after reaching the 2.570 level.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 2.662 to 2.570, the 38.2% retracement level is at 2.616 and the 61.8% level is at 2.598. Price tested the 61.8% level twice without breaking above, suggesting it may act as a short-term support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from the previous rally is at 2.595, aligning with recent price action.

Looking ahead, Vana/USDC is positioned near key support at 2.570–2.580, with limited follow-through selling observed. A break below 2.570 could extend the move toward 2.550–2.560. However, a strong rebound above 2.605 could indicate a short-term reversal. Investors should monitor RSI and volume behavior at key support/resistance levels, as divergences may signal trend exhaustion or continuation.