Valero Energy aumentó en un 3.89%, alcanzando su nivel más alto en 52 semanas, debido a los cambios en las políticas de California y a indicadores técnicos positivos.

Summary
• Valero Energy (VLO) hits 52-week high of $187.65 on heavy volume of 5.69 million shares
• Analysts at Piper Sandler and Jefferies raise price targets to $223 and $194, respectively
• Michael Burry’s bullish stance on VLO reinvigorates retail and institutional interest

Valero Energy’s stock has surged 3.24% intraday, trading at $184.04 as of 8:12 PM EST. The rally is driven by renewed media attention on Michael Burry’s long-standing position in VLO, analyst upgrades, and technical/order-flow signals. With a 52-week high of $187.65 and a 52-week low of $99, the stock’s volatility reflects its positioning as a potential beneficiary of U.S. engagement in Venezuela’s oil sector.

Venezuela Narrative and Analyst Hype Ignite Short-Term Momentum
Valero Energy’s intraday surge is fueled by a confluence of factors: Michael Burry’s public endorsement of VLO as a beneficiary of U.S. involvement in Venezuela’s oil industry, analyst upgrades from Piper Sandler ($223 target) and Jefferies ($194 target), and short-term technical/order-flow signals. The stock’s 3.24% gain aligns with a Power Inflow alert and heavy intraday volume, attracting momentum traders. Additionally, the Benicia refinery closure and import strategy have sparked speculation about refining margins and supply dynamics, further stoking investor interest.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility and Gamma for Short-Term Gains
• 200-day average: $147.82 (below current price) • RSI: 65.10 (neutral to overbought) • MACD: -0.11 (bullish crossover potential) • Bollinger Bands: $156.16 (lower) to $179.61 (upper) • Gamma: 0.022–0.033 (high sensitivity to price swings)

Valero Energy’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias, with key support at $161.21 (200D SMA) and resistance at $187.65 (52W high). The stock’s 3.24% intraday gain and elevated gamma (0.029–0.033) indicate strong sensitivity to price movements, making options with moderate deltas and high gamma ideal for capitalizing on volatility. The VLO20260116C185 and VLO20260116C187.5 options stand out for their liquidity and risk-reward profiles.

• VLO20260116C185 (Call, $185 strike, Jan 16 expiration):
- IV: 44.42% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 37.89% (high)
- Delta: 0.4807 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.3923 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0295 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 260,746 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $184.04 → $193.24 → max(0, 193.24 - 185) = $8.24 gain per share
- Why it stands out: High gamma and leverage ratio amplify gains if VLO breaks above $185, with moderate delta balancing risk.

• VLO20260116C187.5 (Call, $187.5 strike, Jan 16 expiration):
- IV: 44.49% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 48.11% (high)
- Delta: 0.4089 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.3689 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0287 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 90,061 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $184.04 → $193.24 → max(0, 193.24 - 187.5) = $5.74 gain per share
- Why it stands out: High leverage ratio and gamma offer outsized returns if VLO tests its 52W high, with moderate delta capping downside risk.

Aggressive bulls should consider VLO20260116C185 into a break above $185, leveraging its high gamma and leverage ratio for a potential 8.24% gain in a 5% upside scenario.

Backtest Valero Energy Stock Performance
The backtest of Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VLO) after a 3% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable performance metrics. The 3-day win rate is 52.86%, the 10-day win rate is 56.68%, and the 30-day win rate is 55.73%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest period was 5.75%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that VLO can deliver decent gains even after a 3% intraday surge.

VLO’s Rally: A Short-Term Play on Venezuela and Analyst Optimism—Act Now
Valero Energy’s 3.24% intraday surge is a short-term momentum play driven by the Venezuela narrative, analyst upgrades, and technical/order-flow signals. The stock’s 52W high of $187.65 and elevated gamma (0.029–0.033) suggest continued volatility, with key levels at $185 and $187.5 acting as critical resistance. Investors should monitor the VLO20260116C185 and VLO20260116C187.5 options for liquidity and gamma-driven gains. Meanwhile, Phillips 66 (PSX), the sector leader, has gained 0.57% today, reinforcing energy sector resilience. Act now: Buy VLO20260116C185 into a break above $185 for a high-gamma, high-leverage play on VLO’s Venezuela-driven rally.