Valero Energy Surges 4.44% on Venezuela Oil Gambit: Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Valero Energy (VLO) rockets 4.44% to $189.815, nearing 52-week high of $192
• Intraday range spans $181.71 to $189.92, with turnover hitting 2.5M shares
• Sector peers like Marathon Petroleum (MPC) surge 4.09%, signaling energy sector strength
• Options chain shows aggressive bullish positioning with 14 contracts trading above 100% leverage ratios

Valero Energy’s intraday rally has captured market attention as the stock surges toward its 52-week high. The move coincides with geopolitical developments in Venezuela, where U.S. refiners stand to benefit from increased crude access. With technical indicators flashing bullish signals and options activity pointing to high conviction, the energy sector is poised for a pivotal week.

Venezuela Oil Gambit Fuels Refiner Optimism
Valero Energy’s sharp intraday rally aligns with recent geopolitical shifts in Venezuela, where U.S. forces have secured control of key oil infrastructure. This development positions U.S. refiners to capitalize on discounted heavy crude supplies, a commodity Valero’s Gulf Coast facilities are uniquely equipped to process. The stock’s 4.44% surge mirrors broader sector strength, with Marathon Petroleum (MPC) rising 4.09% on similar tailwinds. Analysts note that Venezuela’s heavy crude, historically cheaper than lighter grades, offers a margin boost for refiners with specialized processing capabilities. This dynamic, combined with Trump administration infrastructure pledges, has ignited short-term optimism.

Energy Sector Rally: Refiners Outperform Amid Geopolitical Tailwinds
The energy sector’s 1.98% intraday gain has been led by refiners, with Valero Energy and Marathon Petroleum outperforming integrated majors like ConocoPhillips (COP). This divergence reflects the sector’s exposure to refining margins, which have expanded due to Venezuela’s crude availability. While upstream producers face regulatory and geopolitical risks, downstream refiners benefit from stable feedstock costs and infrastructure readiness. The sector’s 11.41% 6M return underscores its resilience amid macroeconomic volatility.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Gamma-Driven Positioning
• MACD: 3.397 (bullish crossover), RSI: 67.016 (neutral), 200D MA: $149.12 (well below price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $189.815 (near upper band of $189.96), indicating overbought conditions
• Key Levels: 52W high at $192, 30D MA at $172.16, 200D MA at $149.12

Valero Energy’s technical profile suggests a continuation of its bullish momentum, with the 52-week high acting as a critical psychological barrier. The options chain reveals aggressive positioning, with high-leverage calls and puts trading at elevated implied volatility (IV) levels. Two standout contracts:

• VLO20260123C180 (Call, $180 strike, 1/23 expiry):
- IV: 42.82% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 18.70% (high)
- Delta: 0.738 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.406 (rapid time decay)
- Turnover: 22,747 (liquid)
- Gamma: 0.024 (responsive to price swings)
This call offers asymmetric upside if VLO breaks above $192, with theta decay manageable given the short expiry. Projected 5% upside (to $199.31) would yield a 114% payoff.

• VLO20260123C182.5 (Call, $182.5 strike, 1/23 expiry):
- IV: 51.26% (elevated)
- Leverage Ratio: 20.19% (high)
- Delta: 0.649 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.460 (aggressive decay)
- Turnover: 16,356 (liquid)
- Gamma: 0.023 (price-sensitive)
This contract balances leverage and time decay, ideal for a breakout above $185. A 5% move would generate a 138% payoff, rewarding aggressive bulls.

Action: Aggressive bulls should prioritize VLO20260123C180 into a break above $192. Cautious traders may use VLO20260123C182.5 as a gamma-driven hedge against volatility.

Backtest Valero Energy Stock Performance
The backtest of VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (VLO) after a 4% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable performance metrics. The 3-Day win rate is 52.67%, the 10-Day win rate is 56.49%, and the 30-Day win rate is 55.53%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 5.70% over 30 days, suggesting that VLO can deliver decent gains even after the initial 4% surge.

Break Above $192 Validates Bull Case: Act Now
Valero Energy’s 4.44% surge reflects a confluence of geopolitical tailwinds and technical strength. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and elevated options activity suggest a high probability of continued momentum. Marathon Petroleum’s 4.09% gain reinforces the sector’s alignment with Venezuela-driven refining optimism. Investors should prioritize the VLO20260123C180 call for a breakout trade, with a stop-loss below $185 to protect gains. The coming days will test whether $192 holds as a catalyst or a ceiling—position now to capitalize on this energy sector inflection.