Valero Energy Corp (NYSE:VLO): A Bullish Investment Perspective

As an investor, I'm always on the lookout for companies that offer a combination of stability, predictability, and consistent growth. Valero Energy Corp (NYSE:VLO) has caught my attention as a 'boring but lucrative' investment opportunity, with a robust business model and a track record of delivering steady performance. Let's dive into the reasons why VLO deserves a closer look.

Firstly, VLO's strategic approach to refining and renewable diesel has been a key driver of its consistent returns and dividend growth. The company has taken advantage of the growing scarcity of refining capacity around the world, with giant players like Shell and BP reducing the number of refineries. This has led to a potential for stronger improvement in refining margins than the reductions in demand, benefiting VLO's successful, low-fixed-cost refineries. Additionally, VLO's position as one of the largest global refiners, with a high average Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) of 11.8, makes it difficult to replicate. The replacement cost of the assets of each refinery is incredibly high, emphasizing their substantial intrinsic value.

Secondly, VLO's low-fixed-cost refineries play a significant role in generating high double-digit returns in the medium term. With an average NCI of 11.8, VLO's refineries are among the most complex and efficient in the industry. This high NCI, coupled with the company's successful execution and operational achievements, enables VLO to generate substantial cash flow and deliver strong financial results even in weak markets. As a result, VLO's stock is undervalued, offering an opportunity for investors to generate high returns in the medium term.



Lastly, VLO's commitment to returning cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks impacts its stock performance positively. In 2023, the company returned $6.6 billion to shareholders, including $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter. This commitment, coupled with strong earnings and cash flow generation, has contributed to VLO's stock performance. The company's dividend yield of 7.4% per annum and total return of 10.04% in the past year reflect its shareholder-friendly approach.

In conclusion, Valero Energy Corp (NYSE:VLO) presents a bullish investment perspective due to its ability to generate high double-digit returns in the medium term. The company's stock is currently 35% below its fair value, indicating an opportunity for substantial gains. VLO's dividends and buybacks have yielded a total return of about 7.4% per annum, further emphasizing its friendly shareholder approach. The company's position as one of the largest global refiners, with a high average Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) of 11.8, is hard to replicate, and its replacement cost of assets is incredibly high, emphasizing their substantial intrinsic value. VLO's ability to adapt to the growing scarcity of refining capacity around the world and take advantage of the potential for stronger improvement in refining margins than the reductions in demand makes it an attractive investment option. As an investor, I would consider adding VLO to my portfolio, given its robust business model, consistent performance, and undervalued stock price.