Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) Market Overview

• Price surged 0.49% from 0.0621 to 0.0631 amid rising volume and bullish momentum.
• RSI climbed to 58, indicating moderate strength without overbought conditions.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion, signaling increased volatility in the 24-hour period.
• Volume spiked in late-day trading, confirming price action above key 15-minute support levels.
• Notable 15-minute bullish engulfing patterns emerged around 0.0625 during midday hours.

Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0621 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0631 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16. The 24-hour high was 0.0642, and the low was 0.0614. Total volume reached 14,861,234.1 with a notional turnover of approximately 933,230.86 (volume-weighted price).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a distinct bullish bias as the price broke above the 0.0625 psychological level and held above this level for most of the session. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 0.0625, while the late-day reversal candles formed a small bearish divergence but failed to breach the 0.063 line. Key support levels include 0.0622 (38.2% Fib), 0.0616 (61.8% Fib), and 0.0615 (daily low). Resistance levels are now at 0.0635 (20-period high) and 0.0642 (session high).

Moving Averages

The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed convergence, with the price closing above both, signaling short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at ~0.0624, and the 200-period MA at ~0.0620, suggesting the price remains above medium-term support. The 100-period MA is at ~0.0622, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The strategy involves entering a long position when the price closes above the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.0616) and a take-profit at the 15-minute high (0.0642). This would have captured the majority of the upward move seen during the session, especially with the late-day surge confirming momentum. Given the alignment of moving averages and the recent bullish engulfing patterns, this approach could serve as a viable short-term entry strategy for traders looking to capitalize on potential continuation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line in the midday hours, with a positive divergence forming as the RSI climbed from 48 to 58. This suggests rising momentum without reaching overbought territory. However, a bearish divergence emerged in the late hours as the MACD histogram began to shrink despite the price still rising, indicating a possible slowdown in upward momentum. The RSI remains within moderate levels, showing no signs of overbought conditions.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the session, reflecting increased volatility and a breakout above the upper band during the late hours. The price closed near the upper band at 0.0631, indicating continued bullish pressure. A retest of the lower band at ~0.0621 is expected in the near term, particularly if volume shows signs of weakening.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased steadily through the day, with a sharp spike occurring between 08:15 and 09:30 ET as the price surged past 0.0635. Notional turnover also rose in tandem with price, confirming the strength of the move. However, late-day volume showed signs of tapering, suggesting that the bullish momentum may not yet be at its peak but could begin to consolidate. A divergence between price and turnover could signal a potential reversal, but for now, the pattern supports continued upside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 0.0615 to 0.0642 shows key retracements at 0.0635 (23.6%), 0.0632 (38.2%), and 0.0629 (50%). The 61.8% level is at 0.0625 and has held as a critical support. If the price pulls back below 0.0625, the 0.0622 level becomes key for confirming short-term strength.

The price may continue to test the 0.0635–0.0642 resistance zone in the coming 24 hours, with the strength of the move dependent on volume and RSI levels. A sustained break above 0.0642 could signal a shift in sentiment, but investors should remain cautious of a pullback below 0.0625, which could re-establish a neutral to bearish outlook.