Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) 24-Hour Market Overview

• Price declined from 0.0694 to 0.0666, closing near 0.0666 on low-volume consolidation.
• Momentum indicators suggest bearish momentum with RSI below 30 and negative MACD divergence.
• Volatility expanded after 19:30 ET, with price testing a key 0.0712–0.0694 range repeatedly.
• Volume surged during the 0.0712–0.0719 breakout but declined sharply as price dropped below 0.0703.
• Fibonacci retracements indicate potential support at 0.0691 and 0.0675, with 0.0658 as a deeper test.

Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0694 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.0719 before closing at 0.0666 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. The 24-hour volume was 113,247,729.1 units, with a total notional turnover of approximately 7.78 million USDT, based on average pricing.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours displayed a bearish trend following an attempted breakout above 0.0712. A bullish engulfing pattern formed briefly in the 19:30–20:00 ET window, but it was quickly invalidated as price reversed lower. A long lower shadow at 0.0695–0.0696 (19:30–20:15 ET) may signal temporary rejection of bearish pressure. A doji at 0.0703 (09:00–09:15 ET) also suggests indecision and potential reversal support. Key support levels are forming at 0.0691 (38.2% Fib), 0.0675 (61.8% Fib), and 0.0658 (swing low). Resistance remains at 0.0695–0.0703, with the 0.0712–0.0719 range acting as a failed breakout zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA crossed below the 50-EMA early in the morning, forming a bearish death cross. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-DMA are converging toward the 200-DMA (not shown in 24-hour data), suggesting long-term bearish alignment. Price has spent most of the session below all three major moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. A retest of the 50-DMA at ~0.0691 could trigger renewed selling if volume supports the move.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after the failed breakout and remains bearish, with the histogram showing a gradual increase in bearish momentum. A divergence is evident in the 0.0712–0.0693 range, where price made a lower high but MACD failed to do the same, indicating a lack of follow-through in the breakout attempt. RSI dropped below 30 into oversold territory and has remained there, suggesting the market may be due for a short-term bounce, but bearish conviction remains strong given the overall trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded after 19:30 ET, with the upper band peaking near 0.0719 and the lower band settling near 0.0666. Price has been closing near the lower band for most of the session, indicating a bearish bias. The contraction before the breakout was followed by a strong expansion, a common precursor to breakouts or breakdowns. Current position near the lower band implies oversold conditions and potential for a countertrend bounce, though a sustained move above 0.0691 would be needed to challenge the bearish narrative.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout attempt but collapsed as price reversed lower, signaling a lack of conviction. The highest volume candle occurred at 19:30–19:45 ET with ~10.9 million USDT turnover. Price failed to maintain that level, and volume has since been declining, indicating a loss of interest from aggressive traders. A divergence between price and volume is forming near 0.0695–0.0691, with volume decreasing as price consolidates lower. This may suggest a potential reversal if volume picks up again near key support levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 0.0712–0.0691 swing suggest 0.0691 (38.2%) and 0.0675 (61.8%) as key support levels. Price has bounced off the 0.0691 level twice, most recently at 09:00–09:15 ET. A break below 0.0675 would open the door to a test of the 0.0658 level, which acted as a low during the 15:15–16:00 ET window. On the daily chart, 61.8% Fib at ~0.0675 aligns with a potential confluence point, making it a critical area to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy hinges on a combination of Fibonacci retracements and RSI oversold levels to time entries. A long entry would be triggered if price retests the 0.0675–0.0691 range with RSI below 30 and volume confirming the bounce. A short entry could be considered if price breaks below 0.0675 with increasing volume and bearish divergence in RSI and MACD. The strategy would aim for a 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio, targeting 0.0703–0.0712 for longs and 0.0658–0.0645 for shorts. Stop-loss placement would be at the opposite end of the swing or at the nearest Fibonacci level with high volume rejection.