Usual/Tether USDt Market Overview

• Price surged 0.73% over 24 hours, closing at 0.0675, with key resistance around 0.0682–0.0684.
• Volume spiked during midday trading (ET), reaching 5.1M contracts at peak bullish hours.
• RSI climbed above 50 midday, indicating moderate bullish momentum but no overbought levels.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the upward move, signaling rising volatility.
• A potential bullish engulfing pattern formed near 0.0675–0.0684, suggesting continued buying pressure.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-10, USUALUSDT opened at 0.0648, reached a high of 0.0714, a low of 0.0641, and closed at 0.0675. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 136,874,913.8, with a notional turnover of approximately 9,077,560.35 USDt.

Structure & Formations

The pair formed a bullish engulfing pattern near 0.0676–0.0681 following a consolidation phase. A key support level appears at 0.0675–0.0676, while resistance remains clustered around 0.0682–0.0684. A bearish harami formed during the afternoon at 0.0682–0.0681, indicating potential exhaustion in the bullish move. A doji at 0.0676–0.0676 during midday signals indecision, suggesting a possible pause in the trend before a breakout.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price moved above the 20-EMA at 0.0678 and the 50-EMA at 0.0676, reinforcing a bullish bias. The 50/100/200 daily moving averages remain untested, with the 50-day at 0.0671 and the 100-day at 0.0668. Price appears to be forming a potential golden cross if the 15-minute 50-EMA continues to rise above the 20-EMA.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory midday, confirming the bullish momentum, with a histogram showing expanding bullish energy. RSI climbed above 50 and reached 62 at peak, suggesting strong but not overextended buying pressure. A divergence between price and RSI was not observed, indicating that the current move is still supported by momentum.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the morning and early afternoon, with price testing the upper band at 0.0681–0.0684 before retreating. This suggests a period of increased volatility. Price has since consolidated near the middle band, indicating a potential retesting of the upper boundary before a breakout could occur.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning and afternoon ET hours, with the highest turnover seen at 0.0698–0.0678. A clear positive correlation exists between price and volume, confirming the bullish bias. However, a slight divergence appears in late afternoon, with volume tapering despite a minor price rebound, signaling caution for potential near-term exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.0641 to 0.0714, price found support at the 61.8% level (0.0676) and resistance at 78.6% (0.0687). On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level (0.0679) was tested and held, suggesting a possible continuation of the current uptrend if this level is cleared.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed bullish engulfing and bullish MACD crossover suggest a potential long entry around 0.0676 with a stop-loss below 0.0671 and a target at 0.0685–0.0687. A backtest of a strategy triggered by a bullish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart and confirmed by a MACD crossover above zero would likely yield a positive risk-reward profile, particularly when combined with volume confirmation. Testing this strategy over a broader dataset could confirm its robustness across varying volatility conditions.