Usual/Tether Market Overview (USUALUSDT) - 24-Hour Summary

• Price action shows a modest consolidation pattern, fluctuating within a narrow range.• Momentum indicators suggest neutral bias, with no strong overbought or oversold signals.• Volatility remained subdued, with Bollinger Bands showing a slight contraction.• High volume activity was observed in the afternoon, aligning with price rebounds.• A potential bearish engulfing pattern was noted during the late evening session.

The USUALUSDT pair opened at 0.0313 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached an intraday high of 0.0325 before closing at 0.0316 at 12:00 ET the next day. The 24-hour trading session recorded a total volume of 23,208,660 units and a notional turnover of approximately $732,647 (calculated from average price and volume). The price remained largely range-bound, with a slight bullish bias during the early morning hours.

From a structural perspective, the price action formed a symmetrical consolidation pattern, with support holding around 0.0312–0.0314 and resistance at 0.0321–0.0325. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed in the evening as price tested the upper bound, closing below the prior bullish candle. The 15-minute 20/50 EMA crossover remained neutral, with both lines trending flat. On the daily chart, the 50/100 EMA appears to offer a dynamic baseline for potential short-term direction.

The MACD histogram showed a mixed trend, with a narrow positive divergence in the morning followed by a bearish crossover in the afternoon. The RSI hovered around the 50 level most of the day, with a brief overbought signal around 0.0321. Bollinger Bands were relatively narrow, signaling low volatility, with price staying within one standard deviation for most of the day. A mild contraction could suggest a period of consolidation ahead.

Fibonacci retracement levels of the 38.2% and 61.8% appeared to influence key price levels during the session, particularly in the afternoon rebound. Notably, the 61.8% retracement at ~0.0318 coincided with a short-term price stall and reversal. Volume activity was elevated during the afternoon and early evening, aligning with price movements and reinforcing the validity of key support/resistance levels.

Given the neutral momentum and consolidation pattern, the USUALUSDT pair may continue to trade in a narrow range for the next 24 hours. Traders should monitor the 0.0321–0.0325 resistance zone and the 0.0312–0.0314 support for potential breakouts or breakdowns. A breakout above 0.0321 could trigger a retest of the 0.0325 high, but a breakdown below 0.0312 may signal renewed bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the potential efficacy of a Morning Star-based trading strategy for USUALUSDT, historical OHLC data is required for accurate pattern detection. The Morning Star is a bullish reversal pattern typically seen at the end of a downtrend, making it a valuable signal for potential trend continuation. However, due to the current data limitations — specifically the error in retrieving asset base information — a robust backtest cannot be conducted at this time.

If valid data is provided, the analysis will proceed with identifying all Morning Star occurrences since 2022-01-01. For each detected pattern, the strategy would entail entering a long position on the confirmation candle and holding for three trading days. Performance metrics such as win rate, average return, and risk-adjusted returns will be calculated and compared to a buy-and-hold benchmark.