Usual/Tether Market Overview (USUALUSDT): 2025-10-13

• Price drifted lower by -1.69% over 24 hours, closing at 0.0325
• Volatility expanded mid-day with a 0.0347 high before a late sell-off
• RSI drifted into oversold territory (<30) and MACD turned negative
• Volume surged during the midday spike but faded as prices declined
• Bollinger Bands show price consolidating near the 1σ lower band, suggesting potential support

The Usual/Tether pair (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0333 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET, touched a high of 0.0347, and closed at 0.0325 by 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour total volume amounted to 89,914,934.4 units, with a total notional turnover of $2,933,345.25. Price action reflected a volatile session with a sharp intraday reversal late in the day.

The 15-minute chart shows a classic bearish continuation pattern. Prices advanced in early afternoon hours, forming a short-lived bullish divergence in RSI before the MACD histogram turned negative. A bearish breakout below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart followed by a retest of key support at 0.0328 suggests bearish momentum may be extending. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 20-period, confirming a short-term bearish bias.

Volatility expanded significantly during the early part of the session, with Bollinger Bands reaching a width of 0.0005 before narrowing again. Price remained near the lower band in the final hours, indicating a consolidation phase with potential for a rebound near the 0.0323–0.0328 range. Volume declined after the midday spike, but increased turnover suggests liquidity is still active.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 0.0333–0.0347 swing point indicate potential support at 0.0338 (38.2%) and 0.0334 (50%). A breakdown below 0.0328 could trigger a test of the 0.0324 (61.8%) level. The next 24 hours may see a test of these levels with a bearish bias, though a sharp rebound from 0.0323–0.0328 could initiate a short-term reversal if volume increases.

The 15-minute RSI has dipped into oversold territory, with a value of 28 as of the final close, suggesting a potential rebound. MACD crossed below the signal line earlier in the session, and the histogram has remained negative, confirming bearish momentum. The Stochastic oscillator also shows divergence, with %K falling below %D, reinforcing the case for a continuation of downward price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

A Bullish-Engulfing pattern detection strategy was attempted using the current data infrastructure, but the symbol “USUALUSDT” was not recognized by the API. This may be due to either an incorrect or unsupported symbol format. To proceed, one of the following options is recommended:

1. Symbol Verification — Confirm the exact format of the trading pair (e.g., Binance, Bybit) and ensure it is supported by the API.
2. Data Submission — Provide a local OHLC file (CSV or JSON) for “USUALUSDT” in a standardized format, and the Bullish-Engulfing pattern can be detected and backtested manually.
3. Alternative Asset — If “USUALUSDT” remains unavailable, a similar strategy can be tested on another supported crypto pair or asset.

Once the data source is resolved, a one-day-hold backtest can be run from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-13 to evaluate the profitability and risk characteristics of the Bullish-Engulfing pattern on this pair. This would include performance metrics such as annualized return, Sharpe ratio, win rate, and average drawdowns.