Usual/Tether Market Overview (24-Hour Technical Analysis)

• Price declined from 0.0670 to 0.0658, with notable bearish momentum in the latter half.
• Volatility increased during sharp pullbacks, particularly in the early morning hours.
• RSI approached oversold territory, hinting at potential short-term buying interest.
• Volume surged during downswings, confirming bearish bias but hinting at exhaustion.
• Key support identified at 0.0655–0.0653, with resistance near 0.0667–0.0670.

The Usual/Tether pair (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0666 on 2025-09-19 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0658 on 2025-09-20 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.0674 and a low of 0.0652. The pair experienced bearish price action amid increasing volume, with total volume reaching approximately 53.1 million units and a notional turnover of around $3.45 million.

Structure & Formations

Over the 24-hour period, USUALUSDT formed multiple bearish candlestick patterns, including a bearish engulfing pattern between 19:00–19:15 ET and a hanging man at 18:45 ET. A bearish harami also appeared at 23:30–23:45 ET, reinforcing the downward bias. Key support levels emerged around 0.0655–0.0653 and 0.0660–0.0662, while resistance levels are forming at 0.0667–0.0670 and 0.0674.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bearish crossover after 02:00 ET, with the 20-period moving below the 50-period. This confirmed a strengthening downtrend. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period moving average was above the 100 and 200-period lines, suggesting a neutral to slightly bearish bias over the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram displayed bearish divergence, particularly after 05:00 ET, with bearish momentum intensifying in the latter half of the session. The RSI dipped to the oversold zone (below 30) in the early hours of 09:30–10:00 ET, suggesting possible short-term buying interest. However, price failed to break above key resistance levels, indicating that bullish conviction remains limited.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded near the lower Bollinger Band for much of the session, especially between 19:00–21:00 ET, signaling increased bearish volatility. A brief contraction in band width occurred at 05:00–06:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion during the 08:00–09:00 ET window, suggesting a potential continuation of the current trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key bearish breakdowns, especially at 18:15–19:00 ET and 05:00–06:00 ET, confirming bearish price action. However, a divergence occurred between falling price and relatively stable volume after 10:00 ET, hinting at potential exhaustion or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 0.0657 during the 04:00–05:00 ET window. The 38.2% level at 0.0663 appeared to offer partial resistance during the 07:00–08:00 ET bounce. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level at 0.0667 acted as a key resistance zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish momentum and confirmation from volume and technical indicators, a potential mean-reversion strategy could be backtested: opening long positions when price closes above the 20-period moving average and RSI crosses above 30, with stop-loss at the nearest support level and target at the 50-period MA. This setup would capitalize on potential short-term bounces from oversold conditions while managing risk against continued bearish trends.