USTCUSDT Market Overview: Volatility Expands Amid Oversold Conditions

• Price opened at $0.01145 and closed at $0.01079 with a 24-h high of $0.01157 and low of $0.01074.
• A sharp late-day selloff pushed price down 0.63% and saw volume spike by ~30x near the 15:15 ET timeframe.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with price nearing the 20% Fibonacci level and entering oversold territory.
• Volatility expanded late in the session, with price breaching lower Bollinger Band support at ~$0.01086.

Market Summary and Opening – Closing Range

TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) opened at $0.01145 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.01079 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-07. The 24-hour high was $0.01157 and the low was $0.01074. Total volume reached approximately 58.77 million, with a notional turnover of $6,833,680. The late-day selloff was particularly pronounced, with price falling below key psychological levels and into oversold territory.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a clear bearish breakdown after forming a multi-hour bear flag pattern during the early part of the session. A notable engulfing bearish pattern appeared at $0.01142 at 14:30 ET, signaling a shift in sentiment. The session closed with a long lower shadow at 16:00 ET, indicating a potential rejection of the recent lows, though it remains unconfirmed. Key support levels identified include $0.01086 (lower Bollinger Band), $0.01079 (session close), and $0.01074 (24-h low). Resistance levels are at $0.01146 (23:30 ET high) and $0.01157 (session peak).

Moving Averages and MACD / RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, indicating bearish momentum. The 50-period MA is currently at $0.01123, while the 20-period MA sits at $0.01108, forming a bearish crossover. MACD has turned negative, with a bearish histogram, and RSI has dropped below 30, suggesting oversold conditions and possible near-term exhaustion in the downward move. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 200-period MA, but the 100-period MA has begun to cross below the 50-period, indicating a potential shift in longer-term momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly in the latter half of the session, with price breaking below the lower Bollinger Band at ~$0.01086 and testing the 20% Fibonacci retracement level from a recent swing high. The upper Bollinger Band remains at $0.01150, where a rejection candle was observed at 14:30 ET. The widening of the bands suggests increased market uncertainty and potential for a reversal or continuation depending on the next session’s open.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged by ~30x in the 15:15–15:30 ET timeframe, coinciding with the breakdown below key support at $0.01088. This suggests increased selling pressure and bearish conviction. Notional turnover increased in tandem, confirming the volume spike and indicating a genuine shift in market positioning. Divergences were not observed between price and volume, suggesting the move is backed by meaningful participation rather than a false breakdown.

Fibonacci Retracements

Price is currently at the 20% Fibonacci level of the recent 15-minute swing from $0.01146 to $0.01111. The 38.2% level is at $0.01093, and the 61.8% level is at $0.01080—very close to the session close. On the daily chart, price is approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the larger swing from $0.01157 to $0.01074, suggesting a potential support target ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposed involves a short entry upon a bearish engulfing pattern forming at key Fibonacci levels, combined with RSI dipping below 30 and MACD turning negative. A stop-loss is placed just above the most recent swing high, while the target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This approach would align with the observed bearish confirmation signals and oversold conditions seen today. However, confirmation of the pattern at the next session is recommended to avoid false signals from volatile price swings.