USTCUSDT Market Overview: Volatility and Divergence in TerraClassicUSD/Tether

• Price action shows a 0.40% 24-hour decline amid a volatile bearish trend.
• Volume surged 17x during a sharp mid-day sell-off, reaching 25.69 million traded.
• Momentum indicators signal oversold conditions as price nears a key Fibonacci level.
• Bollinger Band contraction suggests a possible breakout or consolidation ahead.
• A Morning-Star pattern backtest is pending due to data access issues.

TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) opened at $0.00815 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00791 on 2025-10-23 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of $0.00814 and a low of $0.00785 over the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 25.69 million units, while turnover amounted to $204,392. Price action shows increasing bearish conviction as the asset drifted below key moving averages.

Structure & Formations

Price action reflects a bearish bias, with multiple downward engulfing patterns confirming seller dominance. A notable bearish divergence appears between price and volume around 19:15 ET, with a sharp price drop but declining volume—suggesting weakening momentum. A bearish 3-gap formation is evident in the 15-minute chart, indicating exhaustion in the short term. A 1-hour doji at 21:30 ET suggests a possible short-term consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, USTCUSDT closed below both the 20-EMA at $0.00803 and 50-EMA at $0.00806, indicating downward drift. Daily data shows a similar bearish setup, with the 50-SMA at $0.00811, 100-SMA at $0.00814, and 200-SMA at $0.00816. This suggests bearish alignment across timeframes and reinforces the likelihood of a continued decline.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines trended negative, with the histogram showing increasing bearish divergence as the price dropped. RSI reached 28 at 21:15 ET, entering oversold territory, but failed to generate a bullish reversal. The lack of a strong RSI rebound despite the oversold condition implies a weak bounce may follow rather than a full reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sharp mid-day sell-off, with the lower band reaching $0.00785. Price remained near the lower boundary in the final 4 hours of the 24-hour window, suggesting oversold conditions. A contraction in Bollinger Band width at 06:45 ET hints at potential range-bound activity or a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 21:15 ET, hitting 25.69 million units traded, but turnover did not rise proportionally—indicating a sell-side dominance with minimal buyer interest. A volume divergence at 19:15 ET further confirms weakening bullish sentiment. Notional turnover remained below $200,000 throughout the period, highlighting the lack of institutional activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings show price near the 61.8% retracement level ($0.00788) of the 0.00785–0.00814 move. Daily Fibonacci levels place a key support at $0.00785 and resistance at $0.00816. A break below $0.00785 may trigger a test of $0.00770. If price retests the 61.8% level and holds, it could signal a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

The Morning-Star pattern is a classic bullish reversal signal, often used in conjunction with RSI and Fibonacci retracement levels. However, due to a data access error from the provider, the pattern detection for USTCUSDT could not be completed. The likely cause is a symbol mismatch or unsupported pair format. To proceed, a valid symbol format—such as “USTC_USDT.BINANCE”—or a local raw data feed is needed. Once resolved, I will backtest the “Buy at next day open, hold 5 days, and exit” rule from 2022-01-01 to today. This will include performance statistics and visualizations to evaluate the strategy's robustness.