USTCUSDT Market Overview: 24-Hour Technical Breakdown

• USTCUSDT traded lower on the 24-hour period, closing near session lows amid declining momentum and high volatility.
• Price action formed a bearish flag pattern during overnight trading, with a key support level identified around 0.01105.
• RSI signaled oversold territory in early morning, but failed to confirm a rebound, hinting at bearish exhaustion.
• Notional turnover spiked during the 00:00–02:00 ET window, coinciding with a sharp price drop and strong bearish conviction.
• MACD showed a bearish crossover with a widening negative histogram, reinforcing downward bias for the next 24 hours.

The TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) pair opened at 0.01116 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 0.01124 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24, after reaching a high of 0.01204 and a low of 0.01100 during the session. Total volume amounted to approximately 392,776,363.0 units, with a notional turnover of roughly $4,385,849 (calculated using mid-prices). Price action featured a late-night bullish recovery attempt, but bearish pressure remained dominant through early morning and into the afternoon.

Structure and key support/resistance levels revealed a strong bearish trend. A key support level formed around 0.01105 after multiple retests, while resistance lingered near 0.01130–0.01140. Notable candlestick patterns included a bearish engulfing formation around 00:15–00:45 ET and a long lower shadow around 02:00–02:45 ET, suggesting potential short-covering or a consolidation phase. A doji formed at 01:45 ET, indicating indecision and a potential turning point.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish bias with the 20-period MA below the 50-period MA, and the 50-period MA falling through key price levels. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period MA, forming a death cross. This reinforced the bearish tone, especially when compared to the 200-period MA, which acted as a significant psychological level but was not tested.

MACD showed a bearish crossover with the line falling below the signal line during the early hours of the session and maintaining negative territory throughout, while the histogram expanded negatively, indicating growing bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30 in the early morning, signaling oversold conditions, but failed to recover above 50, which suggests a lack of conviction in the short-term. Bollinger Bands exhibited a moderate expansion from 00:00–04:00 ET, with prices staying near the lower band for much of the session, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Volume and notional turnover were key differentiators in the session’s bearish action. The most significant surge occurred from 00:00–02:00 ET, with turnover nearly doubling during the sharp drop from 0.01170 to 0.01100. A divergence between volume and price was observed in the late morning, as prices attempted to retrace while volume declined, suggesting the bearish move may lack immediate follow-through. However, the overall volume profile remained skewed to the downside.

Fibonacci retracements highlighted key levels around 0.01124 (38.2%) and 0.01147 (61.8%) as potential pivot points for short-term bounces. These levels aligned with previous areas of rejection and retests, reinforcing their significance. A breakdown below 0.01105 could trigger a larger retracement phase, testing the 0.01085 support.

Backtest Hypothesis:
The described backtesting strategy involves entering a short position at a bearish engulfing pattern identified on the 15-minute chart and closing the position at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This approach aligns well with the observed price action and volume dynamics, particularly the sharp bearish move from the 00:15–01:00 ET window. The strategy assumes a low-risk, high-probability setup, with tight stop-loss placement near the high of the engulfing pattern. Given the current bearish momentum and RSI in oversold territory, this strategy may offer a favorable risk-reward ratio, though a reversal above 0.01130 should be closely monitored as a potential bear trap.