USTCUSDT Market Overview: 24-Hour Analysis (2025-10-03)

• Price fluctuated between $0.01131 and $0.01159, closing at $0.01141 after opening at $0.01131.
• RSI indicated overbought conditions in early hours but settled near neutral by close.
• Volatility remained moderate, with Bollinger Bands showing no major contraction.
• Volume spiked twice: once during the bullish breakout, again during consolidation.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged mid-day, followed by a bearish fade in overnight trading.

The TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) pair opened at $0.01131 at 12:00 ET–1 and touched an intraday high of $0.01159 before closing at $0.01141 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period amounted to 39,470,586.0, with a notional turnover of $454,434.14. Price action revealed a volatile but indecisive session, with a bullish breakout in the early hours and a pullback overnight.

Structure & Formations

Price found temporary support at $0.01140–$0.01141 and resistance near $0.01153–$0.01156 during the session. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 18:15 ET, with a high of $0.01153 and a close of $0.01153, indicating potential short-term buying interest. However, this was followed by a bearish continuation as price faded back toward the $0.01140–$0.01141 support zone overnight. Several doji and narrow-range candles suggest indecision among traders, especially in the late hours of the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price broke above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages during the bullish push but retested both in the latter half of the session. The 20-period MA crossed the 50-period MA earlier in the day, forming a potential golden cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains below the 200-period MA, indicating a bearish bias over the longer term. The 100-period MA acted as a minor resistance near $0.01150.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line rose during the bullish move but flattened after the price retracted, with the signal line crossing below for a potential bearish divergence. RSI reached overbought territory early in the session, peaking at around 72 before declining to mid-50s by the close. This suggests a moderate sell-off after the initial optimism. A bearish RSI divergence developed after 20:00 ET, as price continued to rise but momentum slowed.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained moderate, with the bands expanding slightly during the breakout in the 17:45–18:45 ET window. Price closed near the midline of the bands, indicating consolidation after the initial move. The contraction seen before 19:00 ET could have signaled a breakout, which materialized briefly but failed to hold.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 19:45 ET and again at 03:30 ET, coinciding with the breakout and the subsequent pullback. The 19:45 ET spike was the largest, with a volume of 3,295,056.0 and a turnover of $38,238.42. However, price failed to maintain the breakout level, suggesting weak conviction. Turnover confirmed volume surges during key price moves, but a bearish divergence was observed after 03:30 ET, as price moved lower without a corresponding volume increase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 17:00–18:45 ET bullish move (from $0.01140 to $0.01156), the 38.2% retracement level was at $0.01147 and the 61.8% at $0.01143. Price stalled at the 61.8% level during the overnight session, suggesting a potential short-term support. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level of the larger bearish trend from $0.01200 to $0.01100 sits at $0.01150, which price tested during the session.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering a long position on a bullish engulfing pattern, with a stop loss placed below the pattern’s low and a take profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior bearish leg. Given the appearance of the bullish engulfing candle at 18:15 ET and the subsequent pullback to the 61.8% retracement level, this strategy could have captured the initial move and a portion of the consolidation. However, the lack of follow-through in volume and the bearish RSI divergence suggest the setup may have had limited success. Further refinement may be needed, particularly in identifying stronger volume confirmation or tighter stop levels.