USTCUSDT Market Overview for 2025-10-11

• USTCUSDT declined from 0.01079 to 0.00778 over 24 hours amid a sharp volume spike.
• A bearish breakdown below key support at 0.01065 confirmed a trend shift.
• RSI showed oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a rebound.
• Volatility expanded after 21:00 ET, with a 300%+ increase in notional turnover.
• A long lower shadow and bearish engulfing pattern signaled continued downward momentum.

TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) opened at 0.01070 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.01082, and closed at 0.00778 by 12:00 ET the following day. The pair traded a total volume of 1,085,047,463 and notional turnover of ~$83.6 million. Price collapsed after 19:00 ET, breaking below key support levels and forming bearish candlestick patterns.

Structure & Formations

USTCUSDT exhibited bearish momentum after a sharp breakdown from the 0.01065–0.01075 range. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at the 0.01064 level, followed by a long lower shadow and a confirmed breakdown to 0.00958. Key support levels at 0.01065 and 0.01042 were sequentially tested, with the 0.00929 level acting as a temporary floor. Resistance remains at 0.01064, with a potential bounce likely to re-test 0.01042–0.01061.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, USTCUSDT closed below both 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50SMA remains above the 100SMA and 200SMA, indicating mixed signals. The 50SMA may offer short-term resistance at 0.0092–0.0094 as price attempts a re-test.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line after 19:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped to the 25–30 range by 21:30 ET, suggesting oversold conditions and potential for a short-term bounce. However, the slow recovery in RSI implies bearish continuation remains more likely than a sustained reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded dramatically after 21:00 ET, with price dropping below the 2σ lower band at 0.00929–0.00932. The bands widened by ~150% over 3 hours, indicating a high probability of mean reversion. Price remains within the lower half of the bands, with potential support near the 0.00765–0.0077 level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at 21:00 ET and remained elevated until 02:00 ET the next day, with notional turnover spiking to over $30 million during the breakdown. The divergence between price and volume (declining prices with high volume) confirmed the bearish move. A drop in volume since 07:00 ET suggests the move may be nearing exhaustion, though this remains unconfirmed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 0.01079–0.00929 move, 0.00958 corresponds to the 38.2% retracement. The 61.8% level lies at 0.00935, acting as a potential short-term support. On the daily chart, the 0.01079–0.00755 swing shows a 61.8% retracement at 0.00875, a likely near-term resistance level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering short positions on confirmation of a breakdown below key support levels (e.g., 0.01065, 0.01042) with a stop-loss above the prior swing high. A trailing stop could be set at 0.0105–0.0106 to capture bearish momentum. Given the strong bearish bias and confirmed patterns, this approach aligns with the observed price behavior and could yield positive returns in a continuation scenario.