Four/USDC Market Overview: Volatile Pullback Amid Elevated Turnover

Summary
• Price dropped 7.3% in 24 hours, closing at 0.4347 after hitting a high of 0.4923.
• A high-volume breakout attempt failed, with volume peaking at 64,123.7.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, while MACD remains bearish.

Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) opened at 0.4652 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.4923, and closed at 0.4347 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-06. The price declined amid a total volume of 591,366.6 and notional turnover of 242,646.36. The 24-hour chart shows a bearish consolidation following a failed bullish breakout earlier in the session.

Structure & Formations

The price structure reveals a critical breakdown below the 0.46–0.47 support cluster, with bearish engulfing patterns confirming the reversal. A key support level appears at 0.435–0.44, where volume increased significantly. The low at 0.4343 may act as a temporary floor, but a break below could extend the move toward prior levels near 0.425.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily time frame, the 50/100/200 SMA alignment remains bearish, with the 200 SMA acting as a dynamic resistance. A close above the 50 SMA could trigger a rebound, but momentum remains bearish.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram remains bearish, with a deepening negative divergence. RSI is approaching oversold territory, suggesting a short-term bounce could be in play, though it may lack conviction without a clear break above the 0.45 level.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the bearish breakdown, with the price closing near the lower band at 0.435. A rebound toward the mid-band at 0.447 appears possible, but a sustained move above the upper band will require a strong bullish catalyst.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning break below key support, with the largest turnover of 64,123.7 occurring around 01:00 ET. However, volume has since declined, raising questions about the strength of the current move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the 0.4343 low to the 0.4923 high suggest a possible bounce from the 38.2% retracement at 0.456, with the 61.8% level near 0.467 as a potential resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of multiple bearish engulfing patterns and the absence of bullish ones in the strategy data, an alternate approach could treat each bearish signal as an exit, while setting a stop-loss or time-based hold limit. Using the most recent bearish engulfing pattern as a close, paired with a new bullish signal as an entry, might offer a viable long/short alternating strategy. If the data source lacks bearish records, proceeding with a “buy-only” backtest while using the last bullish signal as a close and the next one as a re-entry may be a reasonable workaround.

A candlestick chart of FORMUSDC for the last 24 hours would show a sharp breakdown from key support, with volume spikes near the low and a bearish engulfing formation.

A MACD and RSI overlay chart would highlight the bearish divergence in both indicators, while the price remains near the lower Bollinger Band with declining volume.