Four/USDC Market Overview: Volatile Downtrend with Oversold Momentum

• Price declined from a 24-hour high of 1.0157 to a close of 0.9539, amid volatile swings and heavy volume.
• Strong bearish momentum emerged after midday, with RSI hitting oversold territory and Bollinger Bands widening.
• Key support levels at 0.9527 and 0.9481 tested, with price consolidating around 0.9539 at 12:00 ET.
• Volume spiked to 23848.0 at 14:15 ET, signaling intense selling pressure.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest potential bounce from 0.9492 or continuation of the decline.

Overview and Key Metrics

Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) opened at 0.9846 on 2025-09-26 12:00 ET and closed at 0.9539 by 12:00 ET the following day, reaching an intraday high of 1.0157 and a low of 0.9481. The total traded volume over the 24-hour window was 118,991.6 with a notional turnover of 114,244.0.

Structure & Formations

The price structure of Four/USDC over the last 24 hours shows a strong bearish bias, marked by several key support and resistance levels. A notable bearish pattern appeared around 0.9864 with a large engulfing candle on the 15-minute chart, indicating a shift in sentiment. A series of lower lows and lower highs from 1.0157 to 0.9539 suggests a continuation of bearish momentum. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 1.0157 high show key areas at 0.9862 (38.2%) and 0.9714 (61.8%), where buying interest might emerge.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are well below the current price, confirming the bearish bias. The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early morning hours, indicating a bearish momentum shift. RSI hit oversold territory below 30 multiple times, most recently at 0.9539, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce or at least a temporary consolidation phase. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 MA structure is bearish, with price trading below all three, reinforcing the downtrend.

Volatility and Volume

The Bollinger Bands have widened significantly over the last 24 hours, reflecting increased volatility. Price has spent most of the session near the lower band, which aligns with the RSI in oversold conditions. Volume spiked dramatically at 14:15 ET (volume of 23848.0), coinciding with a sharp selloff from 0.9634 to 0.9576, suggesting strong distribution pressure. Notional turnover also surged at that time, confirming the bearish momentum.

Bollinger Band and Volume Analysis

The combination of wide Bollinger Bands and the volume spike at 14:15 ET indicates that traders may be positioning for further downside. The price's proximity to the lower band suggests it is oversold, and if it manages to stabilize above 0.9527, it could form a base for a potential rebound. However, the risk remains that the bearish bias could continue, especially if the key support at 0.9481 is breached.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be constructed using the identified Fibonacci retracement levels (0.9527 and 0.9481) as potential buy zones and the 50-period moving average as a dynamic stop-loss reference. Entering a long position on a confirmed rebound from 0.9527 with a stop below 0.9505 and taking profit at 0.9660 (previous swing high) could capitalize on short-term volatility. This approach leverages the oversold RSI condition and aligns with the bearish trend but seeks to capture any short-term retracements. Given the high volatility and sharp sell-offs observed, such a strategy would require close monitoring and risk management to prevent large drawdowns in a fast-moving market.