USDA's July WASDE Report: What You Need to Know!

Ladies and gentlemen, buckle up! The USDA just dropped the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, and it's a game-changer for U.S. agriculture. Let's dive in and see what the numbers mean for your portfolio and the market as a whole.

Corn: The King of Crops

First up, corn. The USDA slightly decreased planted corn acreage to 95.2 million acres, a record-high year for corn acreage. But here's the kicker: ending stocks for 2025/2026 are now projected at 1.66 billion bushels, lowered from 1.75 billion acres in the June WASDE. That's a significant drop, folks! With ample supplies and increased global competition, corn farmers will likely continue to face price pressure this season. But don't count corn out just yet—it's still a staple in the agricultural market.

Soybeans: The Silent Giant

Next, soybeans. The July WASDE report forecast a yield of 52.5 bushels per acre, unchanged from the June WASDE. Total production is now estimated at 4.34 billion bushels. But here's where it gets interesting: ending stocks for 2025/2026 are projected at 310 million bushels, compared to 295 million bushels in June. The average farm price for soybeans is now projected at $10.10 per bushel, compared to $10.25 per bushel in the previous WASDE estimate. Soybean exports are projected to be lower than 2024/2025 with estimates at 1.745 billion bushels. But don't worry, soybean farmers—this could be a buying opportunity!

Wheat: The Steady Contender

Lastly, wheat. Wheat’s national average yield was revised to 52.6 bushels per acre, compared to 51.6 bushels per acre in the prior WASDE report. As a result, USDA now forecasts total wheat production at 1.9 billion bushels. Ending stocks for 2025/2026 are forecast at 890 million bushels, a change from 898 million bushels in June. The season average farm price for all wheat is now $5.40 per bushel, unchanged from last month and lower than the $5.52 per bushel the prior marketing year. Wheat farmers will continue to face low prices despite an improved crop. But remember, wheat is a steady contender in the agricultural market, and it's always a good idea to have some in your portfolio.



Conclusion: The Big Picture

The July WASDE provides a clearer picture of the 2025/2026 crop year, updating yield, stock, and price projections based on finalized acreage. While planted area held steady, changes to yields and ending stocks will shape market expectations heading into harvest. Farmers will still face headwinds on their balance sheets this year, based on the latest updates from USDA. To support long-term stability, producers also need strong trade agreements and greater certainty in global markets, especially as USDA projects lower corn and soybean exports compared to the last several years. Additional investments in the farm safety net under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law on July 4, aim to strengthen producer support amid continued market uncertainty. These updates, combined with the announcement of disaster assistance for 2023 and 2024 losses, reflect a broader push to stabilize the agricultural economy.

So, what's the bottom line? The agricultural market is always full of surprises, but with the right information and a little bit of luck, you can come out on top. Stay tuned for more updates, and remember: the market is always moving, so you need to be ready to act!