USAR cae un 12% mientras la asociación entre el gobierno de EE. UU. genera una reevaluación en todo el sector

Summary
• USA Rare Earth (USAR) tumbles 12.12% to $14.98, erasing $2.3B in market cap
• U.S. government’s $1.94B Korea Zinc partnership triggers investor skepticism
• Sector peers like MP Materials (-4.5%) reflect broader critical minerals sector jitters
• Intraday range of $15.00–$17.43 underscores volatility amid strategic uncertainty

USA Rare Earth’s 12% selloff has sent shockwaves through the critical minerals sector, driven by the U.S. government’s latest partnership with Korea Zinc Co. for a zinc smelter. The move has investors recalibrating expectations for government-backed projects, with USAR’s Round Top project now under scrutiny. As the stock trades near its 52-week low of $5.56, the immediate focus shifts to technical levels and options strategies to navigate the turbulence.

Government Partnership Sparks Investor Exodus
The U.S. government’s $1.94B investment in Korea Zinc’s zinc smelter has directly triggered USAR’s selloff. Investors had speculated that the administration’s critical minerals strategy—evidenced by prior investments in MP Materials and Lithium Americas—would extend to USAR’s Round Top project. However, the absence of a direct partnership has led to a liquidity crunch, with 6.8M shares traded at a 5.13% turnover rate. The bearish sentiment is compounded by a -6.05 P/E ratio and a 11.82% intraday volatility range, signaling a flight to safety in a sector already pressured by macroeconomic headwinds.

Sector-Wide Reassessment as MP Materials Trails USAR's Slide
MP Materials (MP), a rare-earth peer with prior government backing, is down 4.5% on the session, reflecting broader sector jitters. While MP’s 2025 production ramp-up offers near-term visibility, USAR’s lack of a clear funding pathway has exacerbated its decline. Zinc’s inclusion in the U.S. Geological Survey’s 2025 critical minerals list further underscores the sector’s shifting priorities, with investors pivoting toward metals with immediate strategic demand.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Gamma-Driven Moves
• 200-day average: 15.50 (above) • RSI: 68.78 (neutral) • MACD: -0.15 (bearish divergence) • Bollinger Bands: 19.17 (upper), 14.77 (middle), 10.38 (lower)

USAR’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias, with key support at $14.77 (Bollinger middle band) and resistance at $17.09 (30-day pivot). The stock’s 11.82% intraday volatility and 111.82% implied volatility in near-term options create a high-gamma environment, favoring short-dated puts. Two options stand out:

• USAR20251219P15 (Put, $15 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 107.80% (elevated)
- Delta: -0.473 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0096 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.210 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 18,577 (liquid)
- Leverage: 20.00% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% downside: $0.50 (max(0, 15 - 14.2975))
This contract offers a high-gamma, high-IV setup for a 5% downside scenario, with liquidity to ensure execution.

• USAR20251226P15.5 (Put, $15.5 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 90.13% (reasonable)
- Delta: -0.544 (strong directional bias)
- Theta: -0.0076 (minimal decay)
- Gamma: 0.1618 (responsive to price moves)
- Turnover: 6,543 (adequate)
- Leverage: 12.00% (modest)
- Payoff at 5% downside: $0.75 (max(0, 15.5 - 14.2975))
This option balances directional exposure with time decay, ideal for a mid-term bearish play.

Aggressive bears should target USAR20251219P15 into a breakdown below $14.77.

Backtest USA Rare Earth Stock Performance
The USAR ETF has demonstrated resilience following a significant intraday plunge of at least -12% in 2022. The backtest shows a 3-day win rate of 45.28%, a 10-day win rate of 51.89%, and a 30-day win rate of 81.13%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term after the sharp decline. The maximum return during the backtest period was 40.94%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that while there is volatility, the ETF can recover and even exceed its pre-plunge levels.

Critical Minerals Sector at Inflection Point: Act on Gamma-Driven Opportunities
USAR’s 12% plunge reflects a sector recalibration as government priorities shift toward zinc and other critical minerals. While the stock’s 52-week low of $5.56 remains a distant floor, immediate support at $14.77 (Bollinger middle band) and $14.50 (key put strike) will dictate near-term direction. Sector leader MP Materials (-4.5%) underscores the fragility of government-backed narratives. Investors should prioritize short-dated puts with high gamma and IV, such as USAR20251219P15, to capitalize on volatility. Watch for a breakdown below $14.77 or a reversal above $17.09 to trigger a shift in momentum.