US Election Uncertainty: A Storm Cloud Over Global Vacancies

The upcoming US presidential election in November 2024 is casting a long shadow over global markets and economies, with uncertainty about the outcome potentially denting job vacancies worldwide. A recent survey by the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) has highlighted the impact of geopolitical risks, including the US election, on global vacancies.

The US election is expected to be a close race between the incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden and his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump. Regardless of the outcome, the US's trade and defence policies will have significant implications for Europe and the rest of the world.


A Trump presidency could lead to a more hawkish approach to China, putting pressure on the EU to align. On green policy, Trump would likely roll back global goals, but there could be some upside risks for European firms. The most consequential issue for Europe, however, is the uncertainty surrounding US security guarantees under a Trump presidency. Trump has been critical of NATO members that do not meet the 2% defence spending target and has even floated the idea of the US withdrawing from NATO, although this is highly unlikely.


A Biden victory, on the other hand, would likely result in a more cooperative approach to trade and defence policies. However, the EU's defence spending and NATO's Article 5 commitment could still face challenges. The EU is expected to boost defence capabilities, including greater cooperation with the UK, but there are limitations to what can be achieved in the short to medium term due to fragmentation and bureaucratic bottlenecks.

The uncertainty surrounding the US election is not the only factor affecting global vacancies. Geopolitical risks, including the war in Ukraine and the global wave of elections, are also contributing to the instability. The Bank of England has warned that uncertainty caused by these elections risks destabilising the UK's financial system and impacting economic growth forecasts.

The US election, geopolitics, and UK budget fears are all contributing to a storm cloud hanging over global vacancies. As the world awaits the outcome of the US election, businesses and investors are left to navigate the uncertainty and hope for a more stable political landscape in the coming years.