Upstart Stock Plunges 15.31% as Q4 Revenue Guidance Cut, Operational Hurdles Weigh

The share price fell to its lowest level since April 2025 today, with an intraday decline of 15.31%.

Upstart’s stock has slumped amid a confluence of weak financial results, revised guidance, and operational challenges. The company reported Q3 earnings per share of $0.52, exceeding estimates, but revenue of $277.1 million missed the $280.6 million target. A sharper blow came with Q4 revenue guidance slashed to $288 million, below the $306.6 million consensus. This downward revision, coupled with a 13.2% post-earnings drop, underscored investor concerns over growth sustainability. Meanwhile, the AI-driven lending model, which tightened credit standards in Q3, reduced loan originations to $2.9 billion—falling short of $3.3 billion expectations—and sparked skepticism about its adaptability. Insider selling of $858,074.76 over three months further fueled doubts about internal confidence.

Valuation metrics highlight structural risks. A price-to-sales ratio of 5.22 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.04 suggest a premium for uncertain growth, while trailing twelve months’ net income remains negative at -$0.08 per share. The stock’s beta of 3.57 and a 50-day moving average above current prices indicate heightened volatility and bearish momentum. As a credit services provider, Upstart faces macroeconomic headwinds, including rising interest rates and tighter credit conditions, which could further suppress demand. Competitors in AI lending also pose a threat, intensifying pressure to differentiate its model. For recovery, analysts stress the need for clearer guidance, algorithmic refinements, and stronger financial discipline to rebuild investor trust.