Upstart's Stock: From IPO to All-Time High and Beyond

Upstart's stock has dropped 83% from its all-time high, but its growth is accelerating again. The online lending marketplace's AI-driven platform approves loans for banks, credit unions, and auto dealerships, generating revenue by charging referral fees. Despite higher interest rates throttling growth in 2022 and 2023, Upstart's growth is expected to continue, with originated loans growth projected to reach 133% in 1H 2025.

Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ: UPST), an AI-driven lending marketplace, has seen its stock drop 83% from its all-time high, but recent developments suggest a potential recovery. The company's stock has been volatile, trading between $31.40 and $96.43 in the past year, with an average volume of 6.24 million shares [1].

Upstart's financial performance has been robust, with total revenue reaching $219 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, a 56% year-over-year (YoY) increase and a 35% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase [1]. The company reported a 68% YoY increase in transaction volume, totaling $2.1 billion, and a 19.3% conversion rate [1]. For the full year 2024, Upstart reported total revenue of $637 million, a 24% YoY increase [1].

J.P. Morgan analyst Reginald Smith recently upgraded Upstart to Buy with a $88 price target, citing the company's strong performance and growth prospects [1]. The analyst consensus remains a Hold with an average price target of $68.10, representing a 10.58% upside [1]. Despite higher interest rates throttling growth in 2022 and 2023, Upstart's growth is expected to continue, with originated loans growth projected to reach 133% in the first half of 2025 [2].

Upstart's loan volume has more than doubled over the past year, and its newer loan verticals, auto and home loans, are gaining traction. Auto loan originations have increased sixfold over the past year, and home loans grew by 67% over the past quarter [2]. These verticals present significant opportunities, as the auto loan industry is more than five times the size of the personal loan industry, and the home loan industry is even larger [2].

The company's ability to originate loans efficiently and at scale, coupled with its robust growth prospects, positions it favorably in the fintech industry. Upstart's stock has experienced high volatility, with a beta of 2.39 and a significant 60.5% return over the past year [3]. Despite share price weakness, Street estimates for 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA have increased significantly, up 37% and 87% respectively, indicating underlying business strength [3].

Upstart's strategic initiatives and positive financial performance reflect its commitment to growth and innovation. The company's AI-driven platform approves loans for banks, credit unions, and auto dealerships, generating revenue by charging referral fees. Despite the challenges posed by higher interest rates, Upstart's growth is expected to continue, with originated loans growth projected to reach 133% in the first half of 2025 [2].

References:
[1] https://www.ainvest.com/news/morgan-upgrades-upstart-holdings-buy-88-price-target-2508/
[2] https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/prediction-upstart-will-soar-over-next-5-years-heres-1-reason-why
[3] https://au.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/jpmorgan-upgrades-upstart-stock-rating-to-overweight-despite-price-target-cut-93CH-3987442