Upstart 2025 Q2 Earnings Strong Performance as Net Income Surges 110.3%

Upstart (UPST) reported its fiscal 2025 Q2 earnings on August 6, 2025, delivering results that significantly exceeded expectations. The company returned to profitability with a net income of $5.61 million, a 110.3% improvement from a net loss of $54.47 million in the prior-year period. Revenue more than doubled to $257.29 million, driven by strong performance in key segments. The company also provided upbeat forward guidance, indicating confidence in continued momentum.

Revenue
Upstart’s total revenue surged 101.6% year-over-year to $257.29 million in Q2 2025. The bulk of this growth came from fees, net, which accounted for $240.78 million in revenue, highlighting the company’s core business strength. Additional contributions came from interest income, interest expense, and fair value adjustments, net, which added $16.51 million to total revenue. This robust performance reflects the platform’s growing scale and operational efficiency.

Earnings/Net Income
Upstart returned to profitability with earnings per share of $0.06 in Q2 2025, a dramatic turnaround from a loss of $0.62 per share in the same period last year, representing a 109.7% positive change. The company’s net income of $5.61 million marked a 110.3% positive swing from a net loss of $54.47 million in 2024 Q2, underscoring the strength of its earnings recovery and operational improvements.

Price Action
The stock price of Upstart has faced downward pressure recently, tumbling 16.48% in the latest trading day, 19.42% over the most recent full trading week, and 12.06% month-to-date, indicating market uncertainty despite strong earnings.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review
Historically, buying Upstart shares following a revenue growth quarter and holding for 30 days has yielded strong returns. Over the past three years, the strategy has delivered a 211.49% return, outperforming the benchmark by 162.10%. The absence of a maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.46 highlight the strategy’s risk-adjusted performance and ability to capitalize on positive earnings surprises.

CEO Commentary
Dave Girouard, Co-founder and CEO of Upstart, highlighted the company’s return to growth, noting that it is “in full bloom.” He emphasized triple-digit revenue growth, GAAP profitability a quarter earlier than expected, and the acceleration of newer businesses. Key metrics such as loan originations, conversion rates, and operating income improvement were all cited as areas of strong performance, reflecting confidence in Upstart’s progress.

Guidance
For Q3 2025, Upstart expects total revenue of ~$280 million, revenue from fees of ~$275 million, net interest income of ~$5 million, contribution margin of ~58%, GAAP net income of ~$9 million, adjusted net income of ~$44 million, and adjusted EBITDA of ~$56 million. For full-year 2025, the company expects total revenue of ~$1.055 billion, revenue from fees of ~$990 million, net interest income of ~$65 million, GAAP net income of ~$35 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin of ~20%.

Additional News
On August 5, 2025, just one day before the earnings release, Upstart attracted attention with a report titled “Upstart二季报前瞻：AI借贷平台能否穿越利率困局?” which translated as “Upstart Q2 Preview: Can the AI Lending Platform Navigate Interest Rate Challenges?” The report noted market expectations for a strong quarter, with an anticipated adjusted EPS of $0.25 and revenue of $225 million, representing a 73% year-over-year increase. This would mark Upstart’s third consecutive quarter of profitability. While the stock had gained 27% in 2025 and rebounded 150% from its April lows, it still lagged 80% below its peak from October 2021, highlighting the ongoing challenges of high-interest-rate environments for the AI-driven lending platform.