Upstart's $0.26B Volume Drops to 453rd in U.S. Market as Earnings Hype Builds

Market Snapshot

On October 27, 2025, Upstart (UPST) closed with a 0.09% increase in share price, while its trading volume dropped 22.7% to $0.26 billion, ranking 453rd in the U.S. stock market. This volume decline suggests reduced liquidity or investor interest in the stock compared to the prior day. Despite the modest intraday gain, the company’s one-month performance has lagged significantly, with shares down 8.48% against a 1.27% gain in the S&P 500 and a 2.01% loss in the Finance sector. The stock’s recent volatility highlights divergent investor sentiment, with short-term gains failing to offset broader underperformance.

Key Drivers

Upstart’s 1.13% daily gain on October 27 outpaced the S&P 500’s 0.79% and Nasdaq’s 1.15% increases, positioning it as a relative outperformer in a mixed market. This momentum, however, contrasts with its broader trend of underperformance. The stock’s 8.48% monthly decline indicates persistent pressure from sector-wide challenges or company-specific concerns. Analysts have attributed this divergence to anticipation of the company’s upcoming earnings report, scheduled for November 4, 2025.

The earnings report is expected to reveal a dramatic improvement in Upstart’s financial results. Consensus estimates predict an EPS of $0.42 for the quarter, representing an 800% year-over-year increase. Revenue is forecast to rise 73.32% to $281.02 million compared to the prior-year period. For the full fiscal year, projections of $1.66 per share in earnings and $963.44 million in revenue reflect year-over-year gains of +930% and +51.36%, respectively. These figures suggest a potential inflection point in Upstart’s performance, driven by operational scaling or improved profitability.

Analysts are also monitoring revisions to earnings estimates as a proxy for near-term business trends. While the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the past month, the absence of revisions implies a stable outlook. The Zacks Rank system, which evaluates estimate trends, currently assigns Upstart a #3 (Hold) rating. This neutral stance indicates a lack of strong buy-side momentum but also no significant bearish signals. The system’s historical success in tracking estimate-driven stock performance underscores the importance of monitoring future revisions.

Upstart’s valuation metrics further contextualize its stock’s trajectory. The company’s Forward P/E ratio of 31.34 exceeds the 11.95 average of the Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, suggesting it trades at a premium to peers. This premium may reflect investor optimism about its growth prospects or concerns about its risk profile. The industry’s Zacks Industry Rank of 76, placing it in the top 31% of all industries, highlights broader sector strength, which could support Upstart’s recovery if macroeconomic conditions improve.

Investor attention is likely to remain focused on Upstart’s ability to meet or exceed these earnings expectations. A shortfall could exacerbate the stock’s underperformance, while a strong report might catalyze a re-rating. The upcoming earnings disclosure represents a critical inflection point, particularly as the market evaluates whether Upstart’s recent growth metrics can sustain its premium valuation. With no immediate catalysts beyond earnings, the stock’s near-term trajectory will hinge on the alignment between reported results and investor expectations.