UPS Jumps 3.5% to 15-Month High on Bullish Technical Breakout

United Parcel (UPS) advanced 3.48% in the latest session, closing at $104.45 after trading between $100.745 and $105.89. This marks the highest close since March 2025, suggesting potential bullish momentum continuation.
Candlestick Theory
The most recent session formed a strong bullish candlestick with a long real body, engulfing the prior day's range and closing near the session high. This pattern emerged near the psychological $100 support level, which has been tested multiple times since April 2025. Resistance is now evident at $105.89 (July 1 high), coinciding with the February 2025 consolidation zone. A confirmed break above $106 would signal continuation, while failure risks retest of support at $101.50–$100. The bullish engulfing formation following a consolidation near $100 suggests accumulation.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average ($97.80) recently crossed above the 100-day MA ($101.20), generating a bullish intermediate-term signal. The current price trades above both averages, confirming short-to-medium-term upward momentum. However, the declining 200-day MA ($113.50) overhead reflects persistent long-term bearish pressure. Watch for the 50/100-day MAs to hold as dynamic support during pullbacks.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover with histogram bars expanding above the zero line, indicating strengthening momentum. This aligns with the KDJ oscillator where the %K line (78) crosses above %D (72) in neutral territory (neither oversold nor overbought). KDJ's upward trajectory without extreme readings suggests room for further upside before overbought conditions develop. No bearish divergence is observed.
Bollinger Bands
Price touched the upper Bollinger Band ($105.20) during the July 1 rally, while volatility expanded as bands widened from their June contraction. This indicates breakout confirmation. A sustained close above the upper band would signal overextension risk, but the current mid-band support coincides with the 100-day MA ($101.20), creating a confluence buffer against pullbacks.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 19% during the breakout to 5.23 million shares – the highest since mid-June – validating price strength. The volume profile shows consistent accumulation above the 30-day average during upswings, while down days exhibit lower participation, confirming sustainable demand. The Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) for Q2 2025 anchors near $101.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (64) trades in bullish territory but remains below overbought thresholds. This suggests upward momentum has scope to extend before reaching concerning levels (>70). The RSI has formed higher lows since April 2025 while price established a higher low in May, confirming positive divergence and trend stabilization.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the April–July 2025 recovery (swing low: $90.55; high: $105.89), the 23.6% retracement ($104.14) aligns with the July 1 close. A sustained break above this level would target the 38.2% retracement ($112.60), though the $105.89–$107 zone (January 2025 resistance) may challenge advances. The 50-day MA ($97.80) and $101.00 level form key downside support confluence with the 61.8% retracement.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Bullish confluence exists at $101.00 (100-day MA + VWAP + horizontal support) and $97.80 (50-day MA + Fibonacci 61.8%). The MACD-KDJ momentum alignment supports continuation, while volume expansion confirms bullish conviction. No material divergence exists. However, proximity to Bollinger's upper band ($105.20) and the RSI approaching neutrality warrant monitoring for consolidation near $105 resistance. The 200-day MA ($113.50) and $112.60 Fibonacci level remain critical long-term resistance.