UnitedHealth Earnings Preview: Top Investor Expects 'Rough' Report Amid Rising Costs

UnitedHealth Group's Q2 earnings report on July 29 is expected to be "rough" due to escalating costs and regulatory scrutiny. Despite this, top investor Quad 7 Capital sees potential silver linings, including strong free cash flows and a solid return on equity. Quad 7 expects an inflection from this Q2 print and assigns a Buy rating to UNH stock. Analysts agree, with 18 Buy ratings and a Moderate Buy consensus rating, implying potential upside of ~22%.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is set to release its second quarter 2025 financial results on July 29. The earnings report is expected to be "rough" due to escalating costs and regulatory scrutiny. Despite these challenges, top investor Quad 7 Capital sees potential silver linings, including strong free cash flows and a solid return on equity. Quad 7 expects an inflection from this quarter's print and assigns a Buy rating to UNH stock. Analysts agree, with 18 Buy ratings and a Moderate Buy consensus rating, implying potential upside of ~22% [3].

Elevance Health Inc. (ELV), another major health insurer, is scheduled to report its second quarter 2025 financial results on July 17. Analysts estimate adjusted earnings of $9.197 per share on sales of $48.24 billion [1].

UnitedHealth Group has been the first major health insurer to report quarterly earnings for several quarters. However, this quarter, the insurance giant will release its second quarter 2025 financial results on July 29. As it’s the biggest player in the industry, Forbes writes that analysts and investors often use its results to gauge the sector’s overall health [1].

Earlier in July, managed healthcare service provider under the Medicaid and Medicare programs, Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH), issued preliminary second-quarter results and lowered its full-year 2025 earnings outlook, citing rising medical costs across its Medicaid, Medicare, and state marketplace businesses. The company expects Q2 adjusted earnings of approximately $5.50 per share—slightly below earlier forecasts—due to expected cost pressures that will persist into the second half of the year. As a result, Molina cut its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $21.50 -$22.50, down from at least $24.50 previously [1].

UnitedHealth Group closed the most recent trading day at $300.58, moving -1.16% from the previous trading session. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.14%. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 0.2%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 0.27%. Heading into today, shares of the largest U.S. health insurer had lost 3.01% over the past month, lagging the Medical sector's loss of 1.34% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.97% [2].

For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $21.85 per share and revenue of $449.46 billion, which would represent changes of -21.01% and +12.29%, respectively, from the prior year. Additionally, investors should keep an eye on any recent revisions to analyst forecasts for UnitedHealth Group. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook [2].

The healthcare sector has long been a bastion of steady growth, but UnitedHealth Group (UNH) now stands at a pivotal crossroads. While its Q2 2025 results underscore near-term challenges—from soaring medical costs to a looming DOJ investigation—the company's long-term fundamentals remain underpinned by a dominant market position and strategic reforms. For investors willing to navigate this turbulence, UNH presents a compelling risk-reward trade-off, provided they can stomach the volatility tied to regulatory outcomes and leadership execution [3].

References:
[1] https://www.benzinga.com/news/health-care/25/07/46396470/elevance-steps-in-as-unitedhealth-delays-will-it-set-the-tone-for-insurers
[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unitedhealth-group-unh-stock-slides-215005317.html
[3] https://www.ainvest.com/news/unitedhealth-group-unh-balancing-regulatory-headwinds-turnaround-play-2507/