United Breweries Set to Benefit from Karnataka's New Excise Policy with 17% Upside Potential

United Breweries (UBBL) is expected to benefit from Karnataka's new draft excise policy, which proposes a shift to a global taxation standard and deregulation of alcohol pricing. The policy aims to correct aggressive duty hikes that hit beer volumes by 20-25% in 2025. Elara Capital upgrades UBBL's rating to "Accumulate" and raises its target price by 12%, citing a 17% upside potential. The new excise policy is expected to lead to a 25-30% price reduction in regular/economy beer brands, benefiting UBBL's 45% market share in the segment.