United Airlines Stock Rises 1.49% As Technicals Signal Bullish Reversal Potential

United Airlines Holdings (UAL) closed at $98.09 on 2025-10-08, rising 1.49% with a trading range of $95.94–$98.74. This caps a volatile period where prices retreated from September's $106.31 high to test $92.90 support before recovering.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals a critical support zone between $92.90–$93.06, tested on 2025-10-01 and 2025-10-02 with long lower wicks, suggesting accumulation near psychological $93 support. Resistance emerges at the $98.74–$100.22 September congestion zone. The 2025-10-08 close near the session high shows bullish conviction, though it remains below the 2025-09-19 swing high of $106.70. A confirmed break above $100 would validate bullish reversal potential.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (~$95.20) sits below the 100-day SMA (~$97.80) and 200-day SMA (~$85.40), reflecting persistent intermediate-term weakness despite longer-term uptrend support. Current price trades above the 50-day SMA but below the 100-day SMA, indicating consolidation within a broader recovery. The golden cross formed when the 50-day surpassed the 200-day SMA in 2025-03 remains intact, maintaining structural bullishness. A sustained move above the 100-day SMA would strengthen near-term upside potential.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD registers a bullish crossover with histogram bars expanding positively, suggesting building momentum. KDJ readings show %K (76) above %D (70), nearing overbought territory but maintaining upward trajectory. This confluence signals accelerating upside momentum though approaching levels where consolidation may occur. Volume expansion during the recent advance supports MACD/KDJ agreement.
Bollinger Bands
Bands widened sharply during the late-September breakdown to $93.06, reflecting elevated volatility. Recent stabilization triggered contraction, with price now testing the middle band (~$95.90) as support. The ability to hold above this level after reclaiming it may indicate bearish momentum exhaustion. Upper band resistance stands near $100.70.
Volume-Price Relationship
The rebound from $93 support occurred on above-average volume (6.44M shares vs 30-day avg ~5.5M), confirming buyer conviction. Notably, the 2025-10-01 selloff to $93.06 registered the highest volume (6.30M) since September, potentially marking capitulation. Subsequent up days show higher volume than down days, supporting sustainable recovery. Volume must persist above average to fuel a breakout above $100 resistance.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
14-day RSI recovered from oversold 28.5 on 2025-10-01 to 58.3 currently, reflecting improving momentum without extreme overbought readings. This leaves room for additional upside before traditional warning thresholds (>70). Neutral positioning reduces immediate reversion risk while signaling consolidation within an emerging recovery phase.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the 2025-09-19 high ($106.70) and 2025-10-01 low ($93.06), key retracement levels are $98.27 (61.8%), $99.88 (50%), and $101.49 (38.2%). The stock faces immediate resistance at the 61.8% level ($98.27), aligning with the 2025-10-08 high of $98.74. This creates a technical confluence requiring decisive volume-backed momentum for progression toward $100 psychological resistance. Successful clearance of $99.88 may target $101.49.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Multiple indicators agree at $98–$99 resistance (Fibonacci 61.8%, recent price highs, 100-day SMA). Bullish consensus appears at $93 support (candlestick reversal signals, volume validation, RSI divergence). MACD/KDJ momentum alignment favors upside continuation near-term. Watch for divergence should prices stall at resistance with declining volume or momentum oscillators.