United Airlines Boosts Full-Year Profit Forecast on Business Travel Surge

United Airlines has raised its full-year profit forecast following a period of low demand due to flight delays, trade frictions, and conflicts in the Middle East. The company released its second-quarter financial report after the market closed on July 16, reporting a 1.7% increase in quarterly revenue to 152.4 billion dollars, although this fell short of analyst expectations. The adjusted earnings per share were 3.87 dollars, exceeding the average analyst estimate of 3.84 dollars.

The airline expects adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter to be between 2.25 and 2.75 dollars, higher than the analyst consensus of 2.65 dollars. It also revised its full-year adjusted earnings per share forecast to a range of 9 to 11 dollars. The company's optimism is driven by a significant increase in business travel demand this month compared to the second quarter.

United Airlines, based in Chicago, and Delta Air Lines have both expressed optimism about their full-year performance. Delta Air Lines noted that consumer concerns about economic uncertainty have eased following the approval of President Donald Trump's tax and spending plan and progress in trade negotiations, leading to a gradual recovery in domestic travel.

The chief executive officer of United Airlines stated that global uncertainty has decreased compared to the first half of 2025, giving the company confidence in achieving a strong finish for the year. In April, United Airlines had projected a full-year earnings per share range of 7 to 13.50 dollars, with the variance depending on whether the U.S. would enter a recession due to the Trump administration's global trade restructuring or if demand stabilized at a higher level.

The airline industry plans to reduce capacity by mid-August, which could help boost ticket prices. United Airlines' unit non-fuel cost, a measure of efficiency, increased by 2.2% year-over-year in the second quarter. Premium cabin revenue grew by 5.6% year-over-year, while the cheapest basic economy cabin revenue increased by 1.7%.

The airline's second-quarter performance was impacted by air traffic control disruptions and runway construction at its Newark Liberty International Airport hub, leading to flight delays and some passengers switching to other airlines. Newark Liberty International Airport is a critical hub for United Airlines, and disruptions there can affect the entire network. Earlier this year, a series of communication and technical issues led to restrictions on the number of flights per hour at the airport.

The operational disruptions at Newark Liberty International Airport reduced United Airlines' pre-tax profit margin by approximately 1.2 percentage points in the second quarter and are expected to impact the third quarter by an additional 0.9 percentage points. The airport's issues have also led to a decrease in passenger revenue, with the airline's daily flight count still below pre-pandemic levels.

Analysts have noted that overall demand is accelerating, but it may take at least one more quarter for passengers to regain confidence in flying with United Airlines, given concerns about safety and delays at Newark Liberty International Airport.