Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) Market Overview

• Price surged to $8.37, then corrected sharply to close near $8.21, signaling potential exhaustion at resistance.
• Volume spiked during the bullish breakout but declined during the pullback, hinting at diverging momentum.
• RSI moved into overbought territory during the rally, now in neutral range, indicating waning near-term buying pressure.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the breakout before narrowing, reflecting reduced volatility and potential consolidation.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 8.36–8.307 high, suggesting possible reversal pressure.

The Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) pair opened at $8.072 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $8.213 on 2025-10-03 at the same time. During the 24-hour window, the pair reached a high of $8.371 and a low of $8.132. Total volume was 1,983,187.49 units, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $16,226,300.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a key resistance level around $8.37 and a strong support at $8.132–$8.182. Notable candlestick patterns included a bearish engulfing pattern at $8.36–$8.307 and several long-wicked candles indicating indecision. A doji formed near $8.23–$8.24, signaling potential exhaustion at a key psychological level. A bullish harami near $8.20–$8.22 also hinted at a short-term reversal before the sharp sell-off.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed during the rally, confirming bullish momentum before the correction. The 50-period SMA held above the 20-period during the pullback, indicating bearish pressure. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period SMAs remain in a bullish alignment, but the 200-period SMA acts as a key long-term resistance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bullish crossover early in the session, supporting the initial rally, but the histogram began to contract during the pullback, suggesting waning momentum. The RSI moved into overbought territory during the peak at $8.37 before dropping into a neutral range, indicating a potential reversal. However, the RSI did not confirm a bearish divergence, as the price pullback remained aligned with the momentum bar.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the bullish breakout, with price reaching the upper band at $8.37, then contracted as the pair pulled back into the central band. The recent price has been trading near the lower band, suggesting a possible oversold condition. A further test of the 8.18–8.132 support could trigger a bounce back toward the central band, but a break below this level may signal deeper bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout above $8.36, reaching a high of 155,140.94 units in a single 15-minute candle. However, during the subsequent pullback, volume declined, indicating reduced conviction in the bearish move. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with the highest notional value occurring during the bullish phase. The volume–price divergence suggests weakening bearish sentiment, and a follow-through increase in volume on a rally could confirm a short-term bottom.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $8.072 to $8.371, the 61.8% level sits near $8.248 and acted as a minor support during the pullback. The 38.2% level at $8.289 also saw some rejection. On the daily chart, retracing from the 2025-10-02 high of $8.371 down to $8.132, the 50% level at $8.252 remains a critical pivot for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern at $8.36 and the RSI moving into neutral territory, a backtest strategy could involve entering a short position with a stop above $8.37 and a target at $8.132. This approach would leverage the confirmed resistance and the volume divergence to capture the expected continuation of the bearish move. A trailing stop could be employed once the price drops below key support levels, such as $8.212 and $8.189, to lock in gains while managing risk.