Union Pacific Outlook - Technical Strength and Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Union Pacific (UNP) has shown cautious optimism in technical indicators, but fundamentals are mixed with a low internal diagnostic score of 2.82.

News Highlights

• Trump Fast-Tracks Utah Uranium Mine: This move could affect industrial logistics demand, indirectly impacting rail freight companies like Union Pacific. The industry revival, however, appears to hinge on higher prices.
• China's Factory Activity Contracts: Although the decline slowed in May, reduced manufacturing activity globally could affect rail freight volumes, especially if trade tensions persist.
• REX Shares Plans Ethereum and Solana ETFs: While not directly related to rail, the broader crypto market's movements can affect investor risk appetite, possibly influencing Union Pacific's stock volatility.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Rating Scores and Consistency

Average Rating (Simple Mean): 3.78

Performance-Weighted Rating: 2.89

Consistency: Analyst ratings are diverse, with 4 "Neutral", 3 "Buy", and 2 "Strong Buy" recommendations in the last 20 days.

Price Trend Alignment: The current negative price trend (-3.87%) does not align well with the relatively neutral market expectations, suggesting cautious positioning among market participants.

Key Fundamental Factor Values

• ROE (Diluted): 21.54% (score: 1)
• EV/EBIT: 54.25 (score: 2)
• Annualized ROE: 42.26% (score: 1)
• Annualized ROA: 14.96% (score: 2)
• PE Ratio: 101.07 (score: 1)
• PCF Ratio: 81.27 (score: 1)
• Rate of Return on Total Assets: 7.48% (score: 2)
• GMAR: 95.46% (score: 2)
• CFOA: 3.40% (score: 2)
• Inventory Turnover Ratio: 1.53 (score: 2)

Money-Flow Trends

Big-Money Flows: Large and extra-large money flows show negative trends, with inflow ratios at 47.01% and 48.76%, respectively.

Retail and Mid-Sized Flows: Small and medium-sized fund flows are also negative, with inflow ratios of 47.35% and 47.67%, suggesting a general cautious stance by investors.

Overall Money Flow Score: 7.79 (internal diagnostic score; good), reflecting a somewhat negative sentiment across all sizes of capital inflows.

Key Technical Signals

Internal Diagnostic Scores for Indicators

• Williams %R Oversold: 8.25 (internal diagnostic score), with a 69.09% win rate and an average return of 0.78%.
• MACD Death Cross: 5.65 (internal diagnostic score), 55.56% win rate, and an average return of 1.04%.
• Ex-Dividend Date: 7.07 (internal diagnostic score), with a 75% win rate and average return of -0.13%.
• Dividend Record Date: 7.07 (internal diagnostic score), 75% win rate, and average return of -0.13%.

Recent Chart Patterns

• 2025-09-05: Williams %R Oversold and MACD Death Cross signals were active, suggesting potential short-term volatility.
• 2025-09-09: Williams %R Oversold was noted again, reinforcing cautious optimism on the technical side.
• 2025-08-29: Dividend-related signals appeared, indicating a market focus on yield and shareholder returns.

Summary of Technical Momentum

The overall technical trend is strong and optimistic, with 3 bullish signals and 0 bearish signals. The market is volatile, with a neutral to cautious mood, and the momentum is generally positive.

Conclusion

Actionable Takeaway: While Union Pacific shows technical optimism with a score of 7.01, the mixed fundamentals and analyst signals suggest a wait-and-watch approach. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings and industry demand trends for clarity. The dividend-related signals and Williams %R patterns may offer short-term trading opportunities, but long-term investors should look for confirmation of improved fundamentals before committing.