UNI -12.52% 24H Due to Extended Bearish Momentum

On SEP 3 2025, UNI dropped by 12.52% within 24 hours to reach $9.688, UNI dropped by 66.44% within 7 days, dropped by 51.98% within 1 month, and dropped by 2774.3% within 1 year.

The token experienced a significant sell-off driven by deteriorating on-chain metrics and a broad market risk-off sentiment. Recent on-chain data indicates a sharp drop in active addresses and a decline in exchange inflows, suggesting capitulation from retail and institutional participants. Despite the prolonged bearish trend, no major on-chain liquidations were observed, pointing to a potentially stabilized short-term position structure. However, key resistance levels have been decisively broken, with the token failing to reclaim its 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

Technical indicators continue to deteriorate. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 25 for the second time in three weeks, signaling potential oversold conditions. However, this has not triggered a meaningful rebound, indicating that sellers remain in control. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is in negative territory with a declining trend, reinforcing the bearish momentum. A breakdown below the $9.50 psychological level could trigger further stop-loss orders, with the next key support expected near $8.70.

The market has struggled to form a credible bottoming pattern. While some traders have begun to position for a rebound, the broader market environment remains adverse. Analysts project that a sustained rally would require a significant positive catalyst, such as a major institutional adoption announcement or a regulatory development favorable to decentralized finance (DeFi). In the absence of such an event, the prevailing bearish momentum is expected to persist.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy is being explored that involves a dual indicator approach combining the RSI and MACD to identify potential reversal points in the UNI price trend. The strategy initiates a long position when the RSI crosses above 25 while the MACD transitions into positive territory. Stop-loss and take-profit levels are set dynamically based on the most recent support and resistance levels. This method aims to capture short-term rebounds while minimizing exposure to prolonged bearish trends. The strategy is designed to be used in conjunction with a strict risk management framework to limit potential drawdowns during extended downturns.