UMB (UMBF) Down 2.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for UMB Financial (UMBF). Shares have lost about 2.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UMB due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for UMB Financial Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

UMB Financial Q4 Earnings Beat on Y/Y Rise in NII

UMB Financial’s fourth-quarter 2025 operating earnings per share of $3.08, which increased sharply from $2.49 in the year-ago quarter. The bottom line also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.71.

The company delivered a strong quarterly performance, supported by robust organic loan and deposit growth across its legacy footprint and continued benefits from the integration of its January 2025 acquisition of Heartland Financial USA, Inc. Results were driven by solid growth in net interest income and steady fee income momentum. However, higher non-interest expenses and some pressure on asset quality partly offset the positives.

Net income (GAAP basis) available to common shareholders for UMBF was $209.5 million in the fourth quarter, soaring 74.6% from the year-ago quarter.

For 2025, operating earnings per share were $11.35, increased from $9.41 in the year-ago period. The bottom line also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.70 per share.

Revenues & Expenses Rise

Quarterly revenues were $720.9 million, surging 66% year over year. The metric beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.2%.

Revenues for 2025 were $2.65 billion, up from $1.63 billion in 2024. The metric topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.61 billion.

Net interest income was $522.5 million, a jump of 94.3% from the prior-year quarter and up 10.0% sequentially.

On a fully taxable equivalent (FTE) basis, the net interest margin was 3.29%, up 72 basis points year over year and 25 basis points sequentially. The increase was primarily driven by growth in average earning assets related to the Heartland acquisition, continued organic loan growth, higher purchase accounting accretion income and favorable funding mix shifts.

Non-interest income was $198.4 million, up 20.1% year over year. The increase was primarily driven by higher trust and securities processing income, bankcard fees and service charges on deposit accounts.

Non-interest expenses were $425.6 million, jumping 57.4% year over year. Fourth-quarter 2025 expenses included $39.7 million in total acquisition-related and other non-recurring costs. Operating non-interest expenses (adjusted basis) were $391.8 million, up 46.6% year over year.

The efficiency ratio improved to 55.5% from the prior-year quarter’s 61.8%. A decline in the efficiency ratio indicates an increase in profitability.

Loans & Deposit Balances Rise

Average loans for the fourth quarter were $38.3 billion, up 3.2% sequentially. End-of-period loans stood at $38.8 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025.

Average deposits increased 51.4% year over year to $57.6 billion. End-of-period deposits were $60.7 billion at quarter-end.

Credit Quality: Mixed Bag

Net charge-offs totaled $12.7 million, or 0.13% of average loans compared with 0.14% in the year-ago quarter.

Total non-accrual and restructured loans were $144.7 million compared with $19.3 million in the year-ago quarter.

The provision for credit losses was $25 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from $19 million in the prior-year quarter.

Capital Ratios Improve

As of Dec. 31, 2025, the Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio was 11.55% compared with 11.29% as of Dec. 31, 2024. The Tier 1 leverage ratio was 8.54% compared with 8.50% in the year-ago quarter. The total risk-based capital ratio was 13.36%, up from 13.21% a year ago.

Profitability Ratios: Mixed Bag

Return on average assets at the fourth-quarter end was 1.20% compared with the year-ago quarter’s 1.06%.

Return on average common equity was 11.27% compared with 13.53% in the year-ago quarter.

Outlook

1Q 2026

Operating expenses are expected to be in the range of $385–$390 million. This reflects seasonal payroll resets, incentive compensation timing, and higher payroll taxes, partially offset by post-conversion synergies

2026

The effective tax rate is expected to be in the range of 20%–22%.

Management expects to deliver positive operating leverage, despite lower purchase accounting accretion and the absence of one-time investment gains recorded in 2025.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

Currently, UMB has a average Growth Score of C, a score with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise UMB has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

UMB belongs to the Zacks Banks - Midwest industry. Another stock from the same industry, Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), has gained 1.3% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2025.

Huntington Bancshares reported revenues of $2.19 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +11.3%. EPS of $0.37 for the same period compares with $0.34 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Huntington Bancshares is expected to post earnings of $0.36 per share, indicating a change of +5.9% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.2% over the last 30 days.

Huntington Bancshares has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of D.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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