Ulta Beauty's Shares Surge 43.76 in Trading Volume, Rank Top 500 by Daily Volume But Drop 0.97 as Earnings Loom

On August 25, 2025, Ulta Beauty (ULTA) traded 0.48 billion shares, a 43.76% surge in volume compared to the previous day, yet the stock closed 0.97% lower. The retailer is set to release Q2 fiscal 2025 earnings on August 28, amid evolving consumer spending patterns and margin pressures.

Analysts have revised expectations ahead of the report. Telsey Advisory Group’s Dana Telsey raised her EPS forecast to $5.07 and price target to $590, citing Ulta’s loyalty program, brand partnerships, and international expansion. JPMorgan’s Christopher Horvers also lifted his price target to $600, reflecting optimism around comp growth and innovation. However, analysts note narrowing gross margins (projected at 38.1%) and operating margins (11.3%) due to persistent cost pressures.

Strategic moves include the planned phase-out of its Target shop-in-shop program by 2026, the acquisition of U.K. retailer Space NK, and expansion into Mexico and the Middle East. Leadership changes under new CEO Kecia Steelman add uncertainty, though management reaffirmed $11.5–$11.7 billion sales guidance for fiscal 2025. Consumer spending trends, rather than tariffs, are flagged as the primary risk for the second half of the year.

A backtest of a strategy buying the top 500 stocks by daily volume and holding for one day from 2022 to 2025 showed a 1-day average return of 0.98%, with a total return of 31.52% over 365 days. The Sharpe ratio was 0.79, while the highest and lowest daily returns were 4.95% and -4.47%, respectively.