Ulta Beauty Jumps 3.23% to $532.71 on Bullish Technicals and Strong Volume

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) concluded the most recent trading session with a 3.23% gain at $532.71, marking the third consecutive daily advance and a cumulative 6.92% increase over this period. This upward momentum follows stabilization after testing the $496–$498 support zone earlier this month and coincides with above-average trading volume, suggesting reinforced bullish conviction.
Candlestick Theory
The recent three-day bullish sequence resembles a "Three White Soldiers" pattern, characterized by progressively higher closes with minimal upper wicks – indicating sustained buying pressure. Key resistance emerges near the all-time high of $534.10 established on August 13, while critical support resides at $496.81 (August 11 low), reinforced by the psychological $500 threshold. A prior bearish "Dark Cloud Cover" on August 7–8 (high: $516.68, close: $498.21) failed to catalyze significant downside, underscoring underlying strength.
Moving Average Theory
Ulta Beauty trades comfortably above key moving averages, signaling robust bullish alignment. The 50-day MA (approximately $490–500) provided dynamic support during July’s consolidation, while the ascending 100-day and 200-day MAs (est. $440–460 and $400–410 respectively) maintain positive slopes. This configuration suggests the primary trend remains structurally intact, with the price trading near 12-month highs. Confluence exists as the 50-day MA converges with the $496–$500 support zone.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) exhibits a bullish crossover above its signal line, with histogram bars expanding positively – confirming accelerating upside momentum. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator (particularly the %K line) has entered overbought territory (>80), though this is typical during strong trending phases. No bearish divergences are evident, implying the current advance may sustain near-term. These oscillators collectively reflect robust directional bias but warrant monitoring for potential exhaustion signals.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2σ) show pronounced expansion following the recent breakout, indicating volatility acceleration alongside directional conviction. Price currently hugs the upper band – typically a sign of strength. Prior band contraction in late July (width narrowing to ~$25) foreshadowed the current directional resolution. A sustained hold above the middle band (aligned with the 20-day MA near $505) would reinforce bullish control.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 89% above the 30-day average during the initial breakout (August 12: 845,692 shares), validating the bullish impulse. Subsequent sessions maintained elevated turnover (August 13: 741,692 shares), confirming institutional participation. This contrasts sharply with the diminished volume during the preceding consolidation – a classic sign of accumulation. The volume profile corroborates the sustainability of the current leg higher.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (~68) approaches overbought territory but has not yet breached the 70 threshold that might signal excessive exuberance. Notably, prior advances saw RSI peak near 75 before moderate pullbacks, suggesting current readings leave room for additional upside. The absence of bearish divergences – despite higher highs in price – indicates intact momentum. Traders should monitor for RSI values sustaining above 60 to confirm trend strength.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the upswing from the August 2024 low ($329.05) to the August 2025 high ($534.10) identifies key retracement supports. The 23.6% level ($485.70) proved pivotal during July–August pullbacks, with the recent bounce occurring just above this zone. Intermediate support emerges at 38.2% ($455.80), but the current strength suggests the 23.6% level remains the primary downside barrier. A sustained break above $534.10 would trigger fresh upside projections toward the 127.2% extension level (~$585).
Confluence & Conclusion
Multiple indicators converge to support Ulta Beauty’s bullish posture: price sustains above all major moving averages, MACD momentum aligns with volume-backed advances, and the RSI avoids extreme readings. The Fibonacci 23.6% level ($485.70) overlaps with moving average and psychological support at $500, creating a high-probability demand zone. While KDJ overbought conditions and Bollinger Band proximity suggest potential near-term consolidation, the technical structure favors continuation patterns over material reversals. Should $534.10 resistance breach, measured moves toward $550–$560 may develop, though failure to hold $500 would invalidate the immediate bullish thesis.