UK to Mostly Avoid Tariff Trouble with the U.S., Say Economists: Reuters Poll

The United Kingdom's trade relationship with the United States has been a topic of interest since the UK's departure from the European Union. As the UK seeks to establish new trade agreements, the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on UK imports has been a concern. However, a recent Reuters poll suggests that the UK may be able to avoid significant tariff trouble with the U.S.

According to the poll, a strong majority of economists, 19 out of 23, expect the U.S. to impose a tariff of less than 10% or zero on UK imports. Only four economists forecast a 10-20% tariff. This optimism is largely due to the relatively balanced trade in goods between the UK and the U.S., which reduces the UK's vulnerability to U.S. tariffs.

The UK's trade balance with the U.S. is more favorable than its trade with the EU, which is the UK's largest trading partner. This balance makes the UK less susceptible to tariff impacts. Additionally, the UK's trade agreements with non-EU countries, such as the U.S., can help mitigate the potential impact of U.S. tariffs by providing alternative markets for UK exports.

However, the discrepancies in trade statistics methodologies between the UK and the U.S. may impact the perceived trade balance and potential tariff targets. While both countries report goods trade surpluses with each other, differing methodologies mean that Britain and the U.S. both report surpluses. This balance makes the UK somewhat more flexible in reaching a negotiated settlement with the U.S., potentially leading to lower tariffs.

In conclusion, the UK's trade relationship with the U.S. is relatively balanced, reducing the UK's vulnerability to U.S. tariffs. The UK's trade agreements with non-EU countries can also help mitigate the potential impact of U.S. tariffs. However, the discrepancies in trade statistics methodologies between the UK and the U.S. may impact the perceived trade balance and potential tariff targets. The UK's trade balance with the U.S. is more favorable than its trade with the EU, which is the UK's largest trading partner, making the UK less susceptible to tariff impacts.