UK Economy Eeks Out 0.1% Growth in Q3, Falling Short of Expectations

The UK economy grew by a mere 0.1% in the third quarter of 2024, falling short of expectations and marking a notable slowdown from the previous quarter's 0.5% growth. This sluggish performance was driven by a mix of factors, including consumer spending, business investment, and government consumption, as well as the impact of the trade balance and net exports.

Consumer spending, which accounts for around 60% of GDP, grew by a marginal 0.2% in Q3, down from 0.4% in Q2. This slowdown can be attributed to the rising cost of living, with inflation eroding purchasing power. Business investment, another key driver of economic growth, contracted by 0.2% in Q3, following a 0.1% decline in Q2. This can be partly attributed to uncertainty surrounding Brexit and geopolitical tensions, which have dampened business confidence. Government consumption, on the other hand, grew by 0.4% in Q3, up from 0.2% in Q2. This increase can be attributed to higher public spending on healthcare and social protection, as the government seeks to support the economy amidst headwinds.

The UK's trade balance and net exports played a crucial role in the country's economic growth in Q3 2024. Despite the overall growth rate of 0.1% falling short of expectations, the UK's trade balance contributed positively to GDP. According to the Office for National Statistics, net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points to the quarterly GDP growth, with exports growing by 1.1% and imports falling by 0.9% (Number 4). This improvement in the trade balance reflects a boost in manufacturing output, which increased by 0.5% in Q3 2024 (Number 3). However, the services sector, which accounts for around 80% of the UK's economy, grew by only 0.1% in Q3 2024, partially offsetting the positive impact of net trade on GDP growth (Number 3). The slowdown in the services sector can be attributed to a range of factors, including Brexit-related uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and labor market dynamics.

The production sector's decline of 0.2% in Q3 2024 was less severe than the 0.3% drop in Q4 2023 but more significant than the 0.1% decrease in Q1 2023. This decrease can be attributed to a 0.8% fall in manufacturing output, driven by a 1.4% drop in production industries, as per the ONS. Factors contributing to this decline may include geopolitical tensions, wage inflation, and labor market dynamics, as highlighted by the author.



In Q3 2024, the UK construction sector grew by 0.8%, driven by specific sub-sectors. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows that residential construction led the growth, expanding by 1.2%. This was partially offset by a 0.5% decline in infrastructure and a 0.3% decrease in non-residential construction. The residential construction boom, fueled by demand for new housing and government initiatives, contributed significantly to the overall construction sector's performance.

The UK economy's performance in Q3 2024 highlights the challenges and opportunities facing the country. While the overall growth rate fell short of expectations, the positive impact of net trade and the construction sector's growth offer some optimism. However, the slowdown in the services sector and the production sector's decline underscore the need for targeted policies to support these sectors and promote long-term economic growth. As investors, it is crucial to stay informed about these developments and adapt our portfolios accordingly.