Uber Technologies cae un 2.6% debido al entusiasmo por los taxis robotizados y a las diferencias de opinión entre los analistas.

Summary
• Uber’s stock plunges 2.59% to $85.32, its lowest since late 2024
• Lucid and Nuro unveil robotaxi design at CES, sparking AV optimism
• Melius downgrades UBER to 'Sell' with $73 target; Jefferies and BofA maintain 'Buy'
• Options chain surges with 189% implied volatility on 1/16 expirations

Uber Technologies faces a volatile intraday session as conflicting signals from analysts, regulatory scrutiny, and AV partnership developments collide. The stock’s sharp decline to $85.32—its lowest since November 2024—reflects growing skepticism about its AV monetization strategy despite renewed robotaxi momentum. With options volatility spiking and sector peers like Lyft also retreating, investors are recalibrating their exposure to the ride-hailing giant’s high-stakes transformation.

Robotaxi Optimism vs. Analyst Divergence Sparks Volatility
Uber’s 2.59% drop stems from a tug-of-war between bullish AV partnership news and bearish analyst sentiment. While the company’s collaboration with Lucid and Nuro for robotaxi services has reignited optimism about margin-friendly autonomous fleets, Melius Research’s downgrade to 'Sell' with a $73 price target—its lowest among analysts—has amplified selling pressure. The firm cited 'elevated multiples' and 'valuation concerns' in the AV sector, contrasting with Jefferies and BofA’s $119–$120 price targets. Meanwhile, insider sales by CFO Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah and Tony West, totaling $770,000, have added to short-term jitters. The stock’s 52-week low of $60.63 looms as a critical psychological threshold.

Ride Sharing Sector Volatility as LYFT Trails UBER
The ride-sharing sector is under duress, with Lyft (LYFT) down 1.93% to $41.49, mirroring UBER’s bearish momentum. Both stocks face headwinds from regulatory scrutiny and competition in the AV space. While Uber’s robotaxi partnerships with Lucid and Nuro are seen as margin-positive, Lyft’s recent pricing tests and delivery segment struggles have dampened its appeal. The sector’s beta of 1.20 suggests heightened sensitivity to macro risks, particularly as Melius’s bearish stance on UBER signals broader skepticism about AV monetization timelines.

Options Volatility and ETF Exposure: Navigating UBER’s Short-Term Uncertainty
• 200-day MA: $88.23 (below current price)
• RSI: 78.45 (overbought)
• MACD: -0.64 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $87.27 (upper), $77.58 (lower)
• UBER20260116C70 Call: IV 160%, leverage 5.34%, delta 0.83, theta -0.599, gamma 0.0125, turnover 14,279
• UBER20260116P78 Put: IV 33.83%, leverage 8.88%, delta -0.0349, theta -0.0047, gamma 0.0301, turnover 346

Uber’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias, with RSI at overbought levels and MACD diverging below the signal line. The 200-day MA at $88.23 acts as a key resistance; a break below $82.43 (middle Bollinger Band) could trigger a test of the 52-week low. For options, the UBER20260116C70 call offers high leverage (5.34%) and liquidity (14,279 turnover), ideal for aggressive bulls betting on a rebound above $87.27. The UBER20260116P78 put, with moderate IV (33.83%) and strong gamma (0.0301), provides downside protection if the stock gaps below $78. Under a 5% downside scenario to $81.05, the call’s payoff would be $3.05 (max(0, 81.05 - 70)), while the put’s payoff would be $6.95 (max(0, 78 - 81.05)). Aggressive traders may consider a short-term straddle into the 1/16 expiration, capitalizing on elevated volatility.

Backtest Uber Technologies Stock Performance
After experiencing a -3% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present, UBER has shown mixed short-to-medium-term performance. The backtest indicates a 50.92% 3-day win rate and a 50.92% 10-day win rate, suggesting a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. However, the 30-day win rate increases to 59.47%, indicating that longer-term returns tend to be more favorable. The maximum return during the backtest period was 7.81%, which occurred on day 59 after the plunge, suggesting that while there is some volatility, UBER can recover and even exceed its pre-plunge levels.

Urgent Action Required: UBER at Pivotal Support Level
Uber’s 2.59% drop has brought it perilously close to its 52-week low, with critical support at $81.02–$81.29. The stock’s ability to hold above this range will determine whether the sell-off is a buying opportunity or a deeper correction. Analysts remain split, with Melius’s $73 target creating a floor for pessimists, while Jefferies and BofA’s $119–$120 targets suggest long-term conviction. Investors should monitor the Roundhill UBER WeeklyPay ETF (UBEW), which is down 2.8%, for leveraged exposure. For immediate action, consider the UBER20260116P78 put as a hedge against further declines, or the UBER20260116C70 call for a high-leverage bet on a rebound. With LYFT also retreating 1.93%, the sector’s AV optimism is being tempered by valuation realism. Watch for a breakdown below $81.02 or a regulatory catalyst to shift sentiment.