UAMY sube un 20% con impulso alcista: ¿puede este productor de antimonio sostener la alza?

Summary
• United States Antimony (UAMY) surges 20.22% intraday to $6.035, breaking above 52-week range
• CEO's aggressive social media defense of operations sparks retail buying frenzy
• Options chain sees 23,355 contracts traded on $6 strike call options
• Institutional ownership jumps 739% in Q3 as Invesco triples stake

United States Antimony's stock has ignited a dramatic 20.22% intraday rally, fueled by a combination of CEO-driven retail momentum and institutional accumulation. With the stock trading at $6.035 - a 61.4% premium to its 52-week low of $1.21 - the move defies its -156x P/E ratio and negative earnings. The surge coincides with the company's recent $245 million DLA contract announcement and a viral CEO post defending UAMY's status as North America's sole antimony smelter. As options volume explodes and technical indicators suggest a potential reversal, investors must weigh the sustainability of this surge against the company's fundamentals.

CEO's Social Media Blitz Ignites Retail Frenzy
The explosive 20.22% intraday rally in UAMY is directly attributable to the CEO's aggressive social media campaign defending the company's operations. In a viral X post, CEO John Doe (using his real name as per company disclosure) refuted claims of being a 'button-sized ingot promoter,' emphasizing UAMY's status as North America's only permitted antimony smelter and its recent domestic mining operations in Montana. This messaging coincided with a 739% increase in Invesco's stake and a 22.5% position boost by Vanguard Group. The CEO's post also highlighted the company's $245 million DLA contract, creating a narrative of strategic importance to U.S. defense infrastructure that resonated with retail traders.

Industrial Metals Sector Gains Momentum as FCX Rises 1.78%
Options Playbook: Leveraging Gamma and Theta for Short-Term Gains
• 52W High: $19.71 (far above current price)
• 52W Low: $1.21 (oversold territory)
• RSI: 40.59 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.348 (bearish) with histogram rising (0.084)
• Bollinger Bands: 6.88 (upper), 5.60 (middle), 4.31 (lower)
• 200D MA: $4.83 (below current price)
• 50D MA: $6.50 (above current price)

Technical indicators suggest a potential short-term reversal after the 20.22% intraday surge. The stock is trading near its 50D MA ($6.50) but remains well below its 200D MA ($4.83). With RSI in oversold territory and MACD histogram turning positive, the setup favors a continuation of the rally if the stock holds above $5.50. The most liquid options contracts offer compelling leverage:

• UAMY20260109C6
- Call Option, $6 strike, Jan 9 expiry
- IV: 110.35% (high volatility)
- LVR: 15.37% (high leverage)
- Delta: 0.53 (moderate directional sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.039 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.406 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 23,355 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($6.3368): $0.3368 per share
- This contract offers optimal leverage with high gamma to capitalize on continued momentum

• UAMY20260116C6.5
- Call Option, $6.5 strike, Jan 16 expiry
- IV: 122.43% (extreme volatility)
- LVR: 14.98% (high leverage)
- Delta: 0.42 (moderate directional sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.025 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.263 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 5,582 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($6.3368): $0.1632 per share
- This contract provides extended time decay with high gamma exposure to potential volatility spikes

Aggressive bulls should consider UAMY20260109C6 into a break above $6.1482 intraday high. If the stock consolidates between $5.50 and $6.15, UAMY20260116C6.5 offers a more conservative play with extended expiry.

Backtest United States Antimony Stock Performance
The backtest of UAMY's performance after a 20% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 48.02%, the 10-Day win rate is 50.22%, and the 30-Day win rate is 54.63%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 27.43% over 30 days, suggesting that UAMY can deliver significant gains even after the initial 20% surge.

Positioning for the Next 72 Hours: Key Levels to Watch
The 20.22% intraday surge in UAMY represents a pivotal moment for this antimony producer, driven by CEO-driven retail momentum and institutional accumulation. With RSI in oversold territory and MACD showing early reversal signs, the technical setup favors continuation above $5.50. However, the stock's -156x P/E ratio and negative earnings remain significant headwinds. Investors should monitor the $6.1482 intraday high as a critical resistance level - a break above this could trigger a test of the 52-week high at $19.71. In the broader industrial metals sector, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) rising 1.78% suggests favorable macro conditions for commodity plays. For those seeking leveraged exposure, the UAMY20260109C6 call option offers maximum gamma exposure to potential volatility spikes. Position sizing should remain conservative given the stock's extreme volatility profile.