Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) Plunges 83.92% on Analyst Downgrades, Earnings Miss

Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) plunged 83.92% on October 13, 2025, marking its lowest intraday close with an 86.42% drop. The stock has lost 84.43% over two days, reflecting a dramatic reversal in investor sentiment amid a confluence of negative catalysts.

Analyst downgrades played a pivotal role in the sell-off. BTIG Research cut its price target from $55 to $15, maintaining a “Buy” rating but signaling reduced near-term optimism. Cantor Fitzgerald, Piper Sandler, and Raymond James also downgraded from “Overweight” to “Neutral,” while Weiss Ratings reiterated a “Sell (e)” stance. The shift to a “Hold” consensus highlights growing uncertainty about the company’s clinical pipeline and financial health.

The earnings report released on August 14, 2025, further exacerbated the decline. Tvardi reported a $1.00 per share loss, far below the $0.51 estimate, with a negative return on equity of 565.83% and a net margin of 678.79%. These metrics underscored operational inefficiencies and a lack of progress in monetizing its fibrosis-focused therapies, eroding confidence among investors.

Trading volume surged 8,634% to 6.3 million shares on October 13, indicating heightened panic selling. The stock’s intraday low of $5.65 versus its prior close of $41.60 illustrates a sharp liquidity crunch, with short-term traders and institutions accelerating exits. Institutional ownership remains at 44.66%, but key holders like Bank of America have reduced stakes, reflecting a reassessment of risk.

Tvardi’s strategic merger with Cara Therapeutics in April 2025, which aimed to fund operations until 2026, now appears outdated. With no recent updates on Phase 2 trials for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis or hepatocellular carcinoma, the company lacks near-term catalysts to reignite investor interest. In a competitive biopharma sector, where peers like FibroGen face commercialization challenges, Tvardi’s unproven pipeline has become a liability.

The sell-off reflects a broader market skepticism toward high-risk biotech stocks. Analyst-driven downgrades and earnings misses have triggered a flight to safety, with the stock underperforming the S&P 500’s 13.14% year-to-date gain. Recovery will depend on positive Phase 2 data and improved financial metrics, but current indicators suggest a prolonged period of volatility and caution for TVRD investors.