Tutorial/USDC Market Overview

• Price dropped 8.4% in 24 hours, closing at 0.0196 after testing key support levels
• Volatility expanded sharply during the sell-off, with 15-minute highs reaching 0.0218
• Volume surged 11x during the 18:45 ET sell-off, confirming a shift in market sentiment
• RSI entered oversold territory while MACD remained bearish, indicating possible bounce

The Tutorial/USDC pair traded on the TUTUSDC market opened at 0.02126 on October 29, 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0196 on October 30, 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low reached 0.01951 during the early hours of October 30, with a high of 0.02184 on October 29, 18:45 ET. Total volume for the period was approximately 9,895,235.0, while total notional turnover was about 194.09 (in TUTUSDC).

The price action featured a long bearish candle at 18:45 ET, opening at 0.02167 and closing at 0.02116 with a high of 0.02184 and a low of 0.02054—marking a significant 4.9% drop in a single 15-minute interval. This was followed by a wave of selling pressure through the night, with a broad base of candlesticks forming a descending wedge pattern.

Structure & Formations

The key resistance levels for TUTUSDC emerged around 0.0218–0.0223, which held multiple times during the early part of the 24-hour period. A failed breakout attempt was observed at 0.0223, with the price retreating afterward. Support levels appeared at 0.0215 and 0.0205, where the price bounced momentarily before resuming its downward trend. The most notable candlestick pattern was the bearish engulfing at 18:45 ET and the long lower shadow at 04:30 ET, indicating strong selling pressure. A series of doji and spinning tops appeared between 01:00 ET and 05:00 ET, signaling indecision and consolidation before the next leg down.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below each other in a death cross pattern as of 19:30 ET, confirming the bearish bias. The daily chart shows the 50-period moving average below the 200-period line, suggesting a long-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line fell sharply into negative territory after 18:30 ET, staying below the signal line throughout the remainder of the 24-hour window. The RSI indicator dropped below the 30 threshold by 03:00 ET, entering the oversold zone. While this could imply a potential bounce, the lack of a corresponding bullish divergence in the price action weakens the reliability of the signal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sell-off on October 29, particularly between 18:45 ET and 21:30 ET, with the price breaking well below the lower Bollinger Band. This suggests a high level of fear in the market. By October 30, volatility had stabilized, and the price remained within the bands but continued to show a bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 18:45 ET candle, with a 11x increase from the prior hour, confirming the bearish breakdown. Turnover also surged in this period, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Divergence between volume and price was not observed, suggesting strong alignment of price and market sentiment during the selloff.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 18:45 ET to 05:00 ET decline sat at approximately 0.0203, where the price found temporary support before resuming its downward trajectory. The 38.2% retracement level at 0.0210 failed to hold for long, indicating strong bearish conviction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish setup observed—including the bearish engulfing pattern, the death cross on moving averages, and the RSI entering oversold territory—a backtesting strategy could be built around these signals. For a short bias, one might consider entering a short position upon confirmation of a bearish engulfing pattern combined with a death cross in the moving averages. Exiting the trade at the next swing low would be a natural approach. Given the current context, treating this as a short trade (i.e., sell at signal, buy to cover at swing low) would be appropriate, and the RSI overbought condition could serve as an early exit signal in the opposite direction.