Turning Bullish Across Stocks, Crypto, and Gold as Breakouts Near: What to Expect Next

Stock markets demonstrated resilience by recovering early losses despite a criminal investigation involving Fed Chair Jerome Powell and renewed geopolitical tensions. As trading progressed, the consensus view formed that the probe reflects political pressure from President Trump aimed at challenging the Fed's independence rather than a genuine institutional threat. With Powell widely expected to be cleared and underlying economic fundamentals remaining intact, investor confidence stabilized quickly. All major equity indices continue to trade within bullish technical structures as the market moves deeper into the Q4 earnings season. While caution remains warranted given elevated positioning, the prevailing trend stays constructive. At the same time, both crypto assets and gold are showing renewed upside potential, making it important to assess what current technical and fundamental signals are suggesting.

From a technical perspective, leadership within equities remains tilted toward the broader market. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 closed at fresh record highs on Monday, reinforcing positive momentum. In contrast, the Nasdaq 100 continues to hover near a key resistance zone without delivering a decisive breakout. This divergence reflects ongoing investor preference for diversified exposure over tech-heavy allocations, as the AI narrative still requires further earnings confirmation.

Focusing on the S&P 500, the recent breakout points to a more durable bullish pattern ahead. With JPMorgan and other major banks launching earnings season this week, confidence is supported by a backdrop of solid economic growth, easing inflation pressures, and a historically low unemployment rate. These conditions suggest overall results should remain optimistic. That said, expectations are already well reflected in valuations. If elevated optimism leads to post-earnings profit-taking, any pullback would likely be viewed as a potential entry opportunity rather than a signal of trend deterioration.

The Nasdaq 100 faces a more challenging setup. Although a higher-low structure has formed, the index has yet to clear resistance, limiting upside follow-through. Weakness among the so-called Magnificent Seven has contributed to this hesitation, as their recent performance has failed to lift the broader technology complex. Investors appear content to wait for upcoming major technology earnings to better evaluate whether AI adoption can meaningfully lift fundamentals. Should those results disappoint, the index could experience additional consolidation or renewed pressure. Still, with a semi-bullish structure in place and a favorable macro backdrop, downside risk appears contained rather than threatening.

Crypto markets have mirrored this dynamic. Fatigue within tech equities has also weighed on digital assets, contributing to recent weakness. However, early signs of stabilization are emerging. Bitcoin has pulled back from its most recent rebound, yet the underlying trend has begun to tilt modestly higher. Price action suggests growing ambition to break out from its consolidation range rather than renewed selling dominance. While a fully bullish signal has not yet materialized, the presence of a semi-bullish structure remains notable. A sustained move above the 94,000 level would establish a higher high and confirm a clearer breakout. At current levels, a tactical bullish stance appears reasonable, and any confirmation from crypto could help relieve resistance pressure across technology stocks, given the strong correlation between the two risk-sensitive areas.

Gold has delivered the most decisive signal among major asset classes. The metal reached a new record high on Monday, driven by renewed rhetoric from President Trump toward Powell, escalating geopolitical uncertainty involving Iran, and broader global instability. Expectations that the next Federal Reserve chair could adopt a more dovish stance have further strengthened gold's appeal. Political uncertainty continues to reinforce demand, forming the base case for sustained interest. Importantly, the recent breakout has occurred under healthier technical conditions. During the prior selloff, momentum indicators reached extreme overbought levels. Currently, RSI readings sit closer to 77 rather than stretched extremes, allowing room for renewed buying without immediate exhaustion. In an environment where headwinds are building yet sudden shocks remain unlikely, gold appears more predictable than both equities and crypto.

Looking ahead, positioning calls for nuance rather than uniform conviction. The outlook has turned more bullish on gold, while a cautious bullish stance remains appropriate for crypto and equities, with preference toward the S&P 500 over the Nasdaq 100. Gold is likely to remain a core demand asset for global central banks amid Trump-related uncertainty and ongoing monetary easing. Crypto is beginning to display credible turnaround signals, suggesting a potential breakout from its prolonged consolidation phase. The S&P 500 stands to benefit from the upcoming earnings season, and any post-earnings pullback could offer tactical opportunities. Technology remains an open question, but with a resilient economy and the AI narrative still evolving, the broader market environment remains supportive. In this phase, discipline and selectivity continue to define the most effective strategy.