TSMC aumenta un 5,7 % mientras la licencia de exportación de EE. UU. despeja la ruta para las operaciones de Nanjing: ¿es este el inicio de una nueva carrera alcista?

Summary
• TSMC’s stock rockets 5.7% intraday to $321.235, hitting its 52-week high of $321.36
• U.S. Department of Commerce grants annual export license for Nanjing facility, removing regulatory uncertainty
• Nvidia’s H200 chip production ramp-up in Q2 2026 fuels AI demand optimism

TSMC’s explosive move reflects a perfect storm of regulatory clarity and AI-driven demand. With the U.S. export license securing operations at its Nanjing plant and Nvidia’s H200 orders surging, the stock’s 5.7% gain underscores investor confidence in TSMC’s pivotal role in the global semiconductor supply chain. The intraday range from $311.86 to $321.36 highlights the market’s aggressive positioning ahead of its Q4 2025 earnings on January 15.

U.S. Export License Removes Regulatory Uncertainty for TSMC's Nanjing Plant
The U.S. Department of Commerce’s annual export license for TSMC’s Nanjing facility eliminated a critical regulatory overhang, ensuring uninterrupted access to American chipmaking equipment. This replaces the expired 'validated end-user' exemption, which had created operational uncertainty. The license allows TSMC to bypass individual vendor approvals, stabilizing its 2.4% revenue-generating Nanjing plant that produces mature-node semiconductors. Simultaneously, discussions with Nvidia about expanding H200 AI chip production—backed by 2 million pre-orders from Chinese firms—reinforce TSMC’s strategic position in the AI semiconductor boom.

Semiconductor Sector Rally Gains Momentum as Intel Surges 7.5%
The semiconductor sector is surging, with Intel (INTC) leading the charge with a 7.46% intraday gain. TSMC’s 5.7% rally aligns with broader industry optimism, driven by AI infrastructure demand and U.S.-China regulatory adjustments. While TSMC’s Nanjing plant accounts for a smaller revenue slice, its regulatory resolution mirrors similar approvals for Samsung and SK Hynix, signaling a sector-wide easing of U.S. export restrictions. This synchronized move highlights the sector’s reliance on geopolitical stability and AI-driven growth.

Options and Technicals Signal Aggressive Bullish Play—Focus on TSM20260109C320 and TSM20260109C325
• MACD: 2.697 (above signal line 1.604), RSI: 45.3 (oversold), Bollinger Bands: Price at $321.235 (above upper band $312.05)
• 200D MA: $238.25 (far below), 30D MA: $292.01 (below price), Support/Resistance: 200D range $239.26–$242.63 (far below current price)

TSMC’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with the 52-week high at $321.36 acting as a psychological barrier. The stock’s 5.7% intraday gain aligns with its strong seasonal performance (75% January gains historically) and analyst optimism (median target $355).

Top Option 1: TSM20260109C320
• Code: TSM20260109C320, Type: Call, Strike: $320, Expiry: 2026-01-09
• IV: 30.23% (moderate), Leverage: 52.13%, Delta: 0.532, Theta: -1.027, Gamma: 0.0277, Turnover: $1.75M
• IV: Implied volatility suggests balanced risk/reward, Leverage: High gearing amplifies returns, Delta: Mid-range sensitivity to price moves, Theta: Aggressive time decay, Gamma: Strong sensitivity to price acceleration
• This call offers high leverage (52.13%) with moderate IV and liquidity, ideal for a 5% upside scenario. A 5% move to $337.30 would yield a payoff of $17.30 per contract, translating to a 102% return on the $17.00 premium.

Top Option 2: TSM20260109C325
• Code: TSM20260109C325, Type: Call, Strike: $325, Expiry: 2026-01-09
• IV: 30.65% (moderate), Leverage: 80.16%, Delta: 0.397, Theta: -0.854, Gamma: 0.0265, Turnover: $957K
• IV: Slightly higher volatility, Leverage: Extreme gearing, Delta: Lower sensitivity, Theta: Moderate decay, Gamma: Strong price responsiveness
• This contract’s 80.16% leverage makes it ideal for aggressive bulls. A 5% price move to $337.30 would generate a $12.30 payoff, a 128% return on the $9.60 premium. However, its lower delta requires a sharper price move to outperform.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider TSM20260109C320 into a breakout above $325, while TSM20260109C325 offers high-reward potential for a sustained rally. Monitor the $327.50 level for confirmation of a new bullish phase.

Backtest TSMC Stock Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) experienced a significant surge in its stock price, with an intraday increase of more than 6% from 2022 to the present date. The backtest results show that this strategy yielded impressive returns, outperforming the benchmark significantly.1. Strategy Return and Excess Return: The strategy returned 133.20%, surpassing the benchmark return of 42.97% by a substantial 90.23%. This indicates that the 6% intraday increase was a catalyst for substantial gains in TSM's stock price.2. CAGR and Sharpe Ratio: The strategy achieved a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 24.08%, which is a robust indicator of consistent growth over the period. Additionally, a Sharpe ratio of 0.59 suggests that the risk-adjusted returns were favorable, further highlighting the effectiveness of the strategy.3. Volatility and Max Drawdown: The strategy exhibited a maximum drawdown of 0.00%, which is a remarkable achievement, indicating that the strategy minimized losses during volatile periods. However, a volatility of 40.98% suggests that there were significant price fluctuations, which the strategy managed to capitalize on positively.In conclusion, the backtest demonstrates that TSM's stock price surged significantly following a 6% intraday increase from 2022 to the present date, leading to outstanding returns and outperformance of the benchmark. The strategy's ability to manage risk, as indicated by the Sharpe ratio and maximum drawdown, further underscores its effectiveness.

TSMC's Regulatory Clarity and AI Demand Position It for Near-Term Gains—Act Before Earnings
TSMC’s regulatory resolution and AI-driven production plans create a compelling near-term setup. The stock’s 5.7% surge aligns with its strong technicals and seasonal tailwinds, while the sector’s momentum—led by Intel’s 7.5% gain—underscores broad-based optimism. Investors should watch for a breakout above $327.50 to confirm the trend’s continuation. With earnings on January 15 approaching, position sizing and stop-loss placement near the 200D MA ($238.25) are critical. Aggressive bulls may target TSM20260109C320 for leveraged exposure, but remain cautious of geopolitical risks and competition from state-backed rivals.